When Donald Trump came into office last year, he promised that he would end Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine within 24 hours. Twelve months later, the war rages on, with an emboldened Kremlin stepping up attacks rather than showing any signs of slowing down. The White House’s policy priority in the face of increased Russian aggression: making a play to acquire Greenland from Denmark.
The White House may argue that Greenland and the Russo-Ukrainian War are separate issues and that one policy effort does not directly influence the other, but such assertions ignore the realities of both international negotiations and the evidence from the Kremlin’s actions and rhetoric. Whether the US government intends it or not, its gambit to acquire Greenland will influence the Kremlin’s negotiating strategy, and it will only complicate efforts to end the war against Ukraine.
In the middle of what the US government claims to be the endgame of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the White House has made a play to annex Greenland. With the US-Ukraine 20-point peace plan still not finalized, President Trump announced his intent to make Greenland part of the United States and sent his Secretary of State and Vice President to negotiate with the Danish and Greenland Foreign Ministers. Then, when Ukrainian negotiators Kyrylo Budanov, Rustem Umerov, and David Arakhamia were in the United States to engage Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner again, Trump announced that he would be imposing 10% tariffs on multiple European nations for their show of solidarity with Denmark and Greenland, which will be upped to 25% if the US acquisition of Greenland is not complete by June.
A Kremlin negotiator will look at the US government’s coercive bargaining tactics vis-à-vis Greenland and see three things.
The first is the White House’s demonstrated willingness to pressure allies over territorial issues. The Kremlin already well-understood that the White House was ready to use its leverage to compel concessions from Ukraine when the government turned off intelligence sharing and withheld delivery of promised weapon systems for a brief period last year. However, the Greenland case is something more significant: coercion aimed at forcing territorial concessions no matter the longer-term costs to the US government’s European partnerships. This is a useful signal to the Kremlin as it continues to vie for additional Ukrainian territory.
The US delivers a strong message to Russia that Moscow’s current strategies towards the war and its negotiations with the United States are working better than it could have anticipated.
The second is the disparity in the US approach towards allies versus Russia. There is a stark difference between the sharp rhetoric and snap decisions on punitive measures towards European partners and the tempered commentary and slow decision-making on sanctions against Russia. The US restraint in applying additional pressure against the Kremlin while it dials up costs against allies delivers a strong message to the Russia side that Moscow’s current strategies towards the war and its negotiations with the United States are working better than it could have anticipated.
Third, the US government’s Greenland effort signals that the longer Russia drags out the war, the more fractured the transatlantic relationship could potentially become. There are real consequences here for Ukraine when it comes to postwar security guarantees, as under the current proposals, the effectiveness of the European-led Coalition of the Willing hinges on US presence, action, and cooperation. The more disunity that is fomented through the White House’s pursuit of Greenland annexation, the more eroded the foundation for Ukraine’s postwar security guarantees becomes.
The Kremlin has already indicated that it is recognizing these points. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov continues to talk openly about resolving the fate of people in “Novorossiya” – a Kremlin-defined territory extending into Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts – in the same sentence as Crimea and the Donbas region as a requirement for ending the war effort. Meanwhile, Kremlin envoy for peace talks Kirill Dmitriev has been on a social media posting spree declaring that “Transatlantic unity is over,” and chiding European nations for their failed “bravery exercise” over Greenland.
Amid the US power play for Greenland, Russia has also demonstrated increased impunity in its targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In the dead of winter, the Kremlin is deliberately plunging entire cities into darkness with no heat. This has a key objective: wear down the resolve of the Ukrainian people to compel them to accept additional concessions. These attacks have gone without rebuke from the White House.
Russia’s approach has been straightforward: cling to maximalist demands and wait for Ukraine’s partners to lose interest, turn off support, and/or pressure Kyiv to concede more.
This whole situation strengthens the Kremlin’s long-standing negotiating strategy. From the outset of peace-related negotiations in 2025, Russia’s approach has been straightforward: cling to maximalist demands and wait for Ukraine’s partners to lose interest, turn off support, and/or pressure Kyiv to concede more. The US push to acquire Greenland not only empowers Russia to continue making the same demands, but to see how much further it will be able to push on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the situation distracts European partners from continued support for Ukraine and chips away at the foundation for long-term security guarantees and financial backing.
This week will present the next opportunity to see just how much the circumstances in Greenland are affecting the negotiating process on the Ukrainian side. US and Ukrainian negotiators will meet again on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos. The two sides still have not come to any consensus on the right approach for engaging Russia and establishing multilateral security guarantees with European partners, and it will be important to see how the Greenland situation is affecting US-Ukraine and Ukraine-Europe negotiations.
Meanwhile, observers should expect the Russia side to make adjustments beyond the rhetoric that is already entering the information space. For the Kremlin, Greenland is not a sideshow but a signal that U.S. attention, alliance cohesion, and negotiating discipline are all increasingly divisible. As long as that signal holds, Moscow has every incentive to harden its demands, escalate its pressure on Ukraine, and wait for transatlantic unity to fracture further rather than move toward a durable and meaningful end to the war.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.