WASHINGTON DC – As jets lifted off from a snowy Davos, shuttling leaders home and top negotiators to the desert heat of Abu Dhabi – with a high-stakes midnight pit stop in Moscow – senior Western officials are signaling that the next 48 hours could determine whether the world’s bloodiest European war in generations finally moves from the mud of the trenches to the mahogany of the bargaining table.
“This is the closest we’ve been to a structured three-party process since the invasion,” a senior European diplomat knowledgeable about the talks told Kyiv Post late Thursday. “It’s fragile, but it’s real.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky dropped the news with calculated nonchalance on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. “I think that it will be the first trilateral meeting in the Emirates. It will be tomorrow and the day after tomorrow,” Zelensky said Thursday, confirming that Ukraine, Russia, and the US are preparing to sit down in the UAE.
The choice of Abu Dhabi is a study in geopolitical neutrality. Far from the gilded halls of Brussels or the frontline ruins of the Donbas, the UAE has carved out a role as a space where adversaries can sit in the same room without the immediate optics of surrender.
Zelensky’s framing was stark: Both sides are cornered.
“Russia has to be ready for compromises – not just Ukraine,” he said, noting that both Kyiv and Moscow find themselves in a “difficult situation” nearly four years into the conflict.
Davos dance: Trump and Zelensky, part II
The trilateral push follows another face-to-face between Zelensky and Donald Trump – their second meeting since December, following a session at Mar-a-Lago.
This time, the encounter unfolded in Davos, with both men striking cautiously upbeat tones.
“Very good,” Trump told reporters, though he cautioned that the negotiations remain an “ongoing process.”
Zelensky echoed the sentiment but warned of the terrain ahead. “This is the last mile, which is difficult,” he said. “During any dialogue with any president, I have to defend the interests of my country. That’s why the dialogue is – maybe it’s not simple, but today it was positive.”
Privately, Western officials say the chemistry matters more than the soundbites.
“Trump believes personal leverage is his advantage,” said one senior European diplomat briefed about Thursday’s meeting. “Whether that translates into concessions from Moscow is the open question.”
AF1 realism: money, maps, and mass graves
En route back to Washington aboard Air Force One, Trump laid out his calculus in a characteristically candid exchange with reporters.
Ending the war, he said, would be “nice.” He argued the United States “makes money” from the conflict – a sharp jab at the Biden administration, which he accused of spending “$350 billion stupidly.”
But the numbers that seemed to haunt him were human. “It’s about 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers a month… being killed,” Trump said. “I’m doing this to save lives. Number one. Secondarily for Europe.”
When pressed on concessions, Trump predicted a shift in the status quo. “At this point, he’ll make concessions. Everybody’s making concessions to get it done. Europe is going to be a part of it – it’s got to be a part of it.”
He cast the war as a logistics problem rather than an ideological crusade. “You have metes and bounds, you have streets, you have rivers… Where does it end?” Trump said. “It’s boundaries.”
Midnight in Moscow: Witkoff’s seventh visit
While Davos buzzed with talk of “Greenland mode” and European complacency, the real work shifted east.
Late Thursday, cameras captured Vladimir Putin greeting Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, at the Kremlin.
The meeting, which included senior White House adviser Josh Gruenbaum, stretched more than two hours past midnight.
Russian media reported the atmosphere as “cordial.”
It was also familiar: This marked the seventh time Witkoff has sat across from Putin since Trump’s return to the White House.
Earlier in Davos, Witkoff sounded bullish.“I think we’ve got it down to one issue,” he said. “We have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it’s solvable.”
The next stop is Abu Dhabi, where “working groups” will tackle “military-to-military” questions and what Witkoff calls “prosperity.”
“The Kremlin meeting was about testing Putin’s floor,” one Western official said. “Abu Dhabi will test everyone’s ceiling.”
The last mile
The stakes in the desert extend beyond a simple ceasefire.
In Davos, Witkoff revealed a Trump-backed proposal for a tariff-free economic zone in eastern Ukraine – a move designed to lure Western investment into devastated regions once the guns fall silent.
“You can’t build free trade zones on contested territory,” one EU official noted dryly. “First you need borders that stop moving.”
As the delegations converge on the Emirates, the cautious optimism of Davos faces its first real stress test.
Trump insisted the parameters are already known, noting that Zelensky spoke movingly about a winter without heat.
“That’s no way to live,” Trump said.
In the desert this weekend, under chandeliers far from the sub-zero front lines, three adversaries will try something they have not managed in nearly four years: to sit together long enough to see if peace is finally negotiable.