Moscow and Washington are playing the same game against Kyiv.
This is not a conspiracy theory; it is a reality that only a few are willing to say out loud. This is not about diplomacy, negotiations, or compromise. It is about collusion between two leaders who intend to strangle a sovereign Ukraine.
In a recent interview, Trump argued that the Ukrainian people support his peace plan. All of them, except one person: Zelensky.
Consider what that implies. The US president is publicly claiming that Ukrainians stand against their own elected president. This is not simply rhetoric. It is a direct, open call to remove a legitimate government. In the middle of an ongoing world war, America has, in effect, moved to the enemy side.
Think this is an overstatement?
Then look at what is being said and written. A recently published US national security doctrine contains language that, a year ago, would have sounded unthinkable. It repeats arguments, familiar from Soviet and post-Soviet propaganda, about “undemocratic governments” in Western Europe. In an American policy document, that is not a strategy; it is ideology imported from Moscow.
Tanks do not need to enter Kyiv if Ukraine can be forced to collapse from within.
This is more than words. It was a template for action, and its logic is brutal. The goal is to generate enough internal chaos in Ukraine that the state cracks under the weight of political pressure, ultimatums, presidential election demands, and sustained psychological warfare.
Tanks do not need to enter Kyiv if Ukraine can be forced to collapse from within. Putin applies military pressure from the east with missiles and drones. Trump applies political pressure from the west with deadlines and threats. Both demand that Ukraine surrender 20% of the Donetsk region.
Twenty percent sounds like a compromise until you translate it into geography. Those “20%” include Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, along with the defensive system Ukraine has been building there since 2014. At Russia’s current tempo, breaking those lines by force would take an extended campaign. Handing them over voluntarily would open the road deeper into Ukraine. This is not a compromise, but a capitulation.
The historical analogy is not subtle. In 1938, Czechoslovakia gave up key fortified positions and ceased to exist within months. Hitler, after inspection of these territories, admitted he was struck by the strength of those defenses.
Putin is demanding a comparable concession today, and Trump is lending political support to the demand. If Ukraine is truly losing as decisively as Kremlin propaganda insists, then a basic question follows. Why not take these cities by force? Why the pressure, the persuasion, the blackmail? Take them, if you can.
The reason they do not is straightforward. They cannot.
Behind the propaganda noise sits a simpler reality. Russia is exhausting its reserves. Resources are tightening, manpower is being depleted, and time is not working in Moscow’s favor. That is why the Kremlin needs a “victory” as soon as possible, before the window closes.
Moscow has failed to account for two developments.
Under these circumstances, Trump is becoming the most valuable political asset for Putin. He has been that asset for years, but now the dynamic of this process has reached its most acute form.
A national security doctrine that casts Europe, not Russia, as an adversary. Daily public statements targeting Ukraine. Pressure applied personally to Zelensky. This is no longer neutrality with friendly overtones. It is an increasingly open alignment with the aggressor.
But Moscow has failed to account for two developments.
First, hopes for internal destabilization in Ukraine have not materialized. Ukrainian society consolidated when it became clear that pressure was coming not only from the east, but also from the west.
Second, and even more consequential, Europe is sobering up.
European leaders are beginning to regard their Ukraine policy not as moral support for a distant country, but as a direct question of their own security.
Europe needs a shield today. Ukraine is functioning as that shield.
A catalyst was a statement by Russian General Andrey Kartapolov, who recently described Europe’s future in blunt terms. He said that once Russia reaches Ukraine’s western border, Europe will be on its knees begging for mercy. The quote spread rapidly across European media, precisely because it stripped away ambiguity.
Europeans have drawn a hard conclusion. If they allow Ukraine’s army to be broken, if Kramatorsk and Sloviansk fall, and if Russia reaches the western edge of Ukraine, then money, bureaucratic capacity, and diplomatic language will not protect Europe. The only force currently positioned to stop that outcome is the Ukrainian military, battle-hardened and operationally experienced. Europe needs a shield today. Ukraine is functioning as that shield.
Pressure from Congress and pro-Ukraine voices inside the administration cause Trump to preserve some elements of support for Ukraine. Intelligence sharing continues at some level, and European governments remain able to purchase US weapons for transfer to Ukraine. The message to Europe is, in effect, handle it yourselves. This is not the best outcome for Ukraine, but it remains workable.
The outcome of this battle will shape the new world order we all shall live in.
Any Trump attempt to withdraw this limited support would be regarded by the overwhelming majority of Americans as open betrayal and would provoke backlash inside the US political system. It could carry real costs for Trump. inside his own party. A lot of Republicans support continued assistance to Ukraine and argue that aid should be increased.
Time is the central variable. Putin is desperately clinging to his illusion of a “victory.” Trump is applying pressure through ultimatums and deadlines. Zelensky is holding the line because retreat now would be existential. Europeans increasingly understand that if Ukraine is forced to collapse, Europe will confront Russia without the only available EUROPEAN ARMY absorbing now Russia’s offensive power.
The outcome of this battle will shape the new world order we all shall live in.
It will either be a world where democracies are quietly strangled with the consent of their former allies, or one where enough actors still say no to evil – and pay the price to stop it.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.