The Spring Festival, which this year falls on Feb. 17, marks the Lunar New Year and the inauguration of China’s year of the horse. Traditionally, it’s a time for family reunions, cleaning the house, and paying off debts to start the new year with a clean slate.
One thing is certain: The reason Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to fire two senior military officers in the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission (CMC) was not due to seasonal factors. When he dismissed the CMC’s first-ranked Vice Chair, Gen. Zhang Youxia, and the Chief of Staff of the CMC’s Joint Staff Department (JSD), Gen. Liu Zhenli, it was no mere housecleaning.
But exactly why Xi acted in this manner – to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, to counter any chance of a military takeover, or maybe a combination of the two – remains unclear.
The important thing to remember with Chinese purges is that timing, as in comedy, is everything. The question to ask is not “what has occurred?” but “why is it happening now?”
China’s Central Military Commission, as the name implies, controls the armed forces, is headed by Xi, and Zhang, 75, was its top vice-chair. He was, until recently, considered an ally and close confidant of Xi.
The commission also plays a crucial political role. No one who wants to be China’s ultimate leader can gain power without its approval. Indeed, Xi owes his rise to power in many ways to the commission.
When Xi formally took power in 2013, it was because of the commission’s backing. Li Keqiang, who died in 2023 in a swimming pool accident in Shanghai, had been the favorite to become president. But Xi managed to persuade the commission that Li was too much of a reformer and would weaken the party’s grip on power.
Xi, in contrast, promised to retain the party’s supremacy. The commission’s choice was clear: weakened party control in a more prosperous country or stability under Xi.
This is not the first time Xi has targeted the military. When he assumed office, the armed forces were seen as a hotbed of corruption. Promotions were bought, and senior officers took their own illegal cut from arms purchases.
Xi, over his time in office, has removed the core leadership of the navy, air force, paramilitary police and the missile and nuclear command force, commonly referred to as the Rocket Force.
Those who have been sacked include generals, a commander and a defense minister.
Fighting corruption can cover a multitude of sins, and no one really believes that graft-busting is the reason for this latest purge.
Xi, for instance, has been accused of corruption by discarding the two-term presidential limit and making himself leader for life. At the very least, this refusal to relinquish office sends a contradictory signal.
The latest military purge deviated markedly from others.
Normally, it is easy to tell that a general or senior officer has been sacked, as they vanish from public view months beforehand, and there is a media blackout on any mention of their names.
Not so this time. Their removal happened abruptly, in just a matter of days from the first indicators.
And the actual announcement seemed more condemnatory. Usually, the charge leveled against suspects is that they took bribes. This time, state media PLA Daily said they had “seriously fueled political and corruption issues that affect the party’s absolute leadership over the military.”
Rumors whirl around Beijing like willow catkins. They suggest that Zhang and Liu were involved in a high-level coup plot to take down Xi or that they were passing nuclear secrets to the United States.
Taiwan is almost certainly a factor.
Back to timing.
Next year marks the centennial of the PLA’s founding. And crucially, US President Donald Trump will be in the White House.
The leadership in Beijing is confident that Trump would not send US forces to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. They look at Ukraine and conclude that the US would not send forces into Asia to take on the Chinese military.
Younger generals, replacing the old guard, would owe their promotion to Xi. They would be both grateful and fearful.
Many would have been schooled in the highly nationalistic “wolf warrior” brand, confident that now is the best time for China to strike.
Rising nationalism, red in tooth and claw, has been a significant feature of Xi’s reign.
No one knows exactly why Xi acted at this juncture. But the timing suggests that he is ensuring the military’s total loyalty to safeguard his own rule and give the impression, at the very least, that a strike on Taiwan remains a very real option.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.