Did US President Donald Trump really get Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop bombarding Ukraine for a Week?
The short answer:
No, Trump did not get Russia to stop attacking. There was no ceasefire in any meaningful sense of the word.
What did President Trump say?
On Tuesday, Feb. 3, Trump told reporters in the White House that Putin had “kept his word” regarding a temporary pause in attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to the US leader, he had agreed with his Russian counterpart that the Kremlin would launch no strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a week.
Trump’s specific comments were: “It [the Kremlin hold on attacks] was Sunday to Sunday, and it opened up [i.e. the week-long hold on attacks ended] and he [Putin] hit them [Ukrainian homes, businesses and energy infrastructure] hard last night. He kept his word on that. It was – it’s a lot, you know, one week. We’ll take anything, because it’s really, really cold, over there [in Ukraine], but it was on Sunday, and he went from Sunday to Sunday.”
Trump, on Thursday, Jan. 29, during a televised cabinet meeting, announced he had negotiated a week-long “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, by personally asking Putin “not to fire into Kyiv and the various towns for a week” because of the extraordinary cold weather in Ukraine, and that Putin had agreed.
As the precise moment Trump claimed to US reporters that Putin had kept his word, at about 3:50 p.m. Washington DC time – at 10:50 p.m. in Kyiv – a massive Russian missile and drone strike package had already breached Ukrainian airspace.
By the time Trump’s media engagement had ended, at about 4:15 p.m. DC/11:15 p.m. Kyiv time, the first warheads of the Kremlin’s third-biggest attack against Ukraine’s power grid and public heating infrastructure of the entire Russo-Ukraine War had already detonated.
Did Russia refrain from attacking Ukraine from “Sunday to Sunday,” like Trump claimed?
No, Russia did not. Russia attacked Ukraine every day of the “ceasefire” described by Trump.
During the “week” of supposed non-attacks that Trump claimed he had negotiated, Russia hit dozens of civilian targets in Ukraine daily.
During the last day of the “ceasefire,” Russia launched the third-largest missile and drone attack of the entire war, targeting Ukraine’s power grid and national central heating network.Although it wasn’t possible to confirm intentional Russian targeting of Ukrainian energy and power infrastructure on every one of those days, a systematic Russian effort to identify gaps in Ukrainian air defenses and hit targets of opportunity was constant.
For example, on Sunday, Feb. 1, a Russian Shahed drone attacked a bus carrying power company workers, killing 12 and injuring 16.
What’s the actual breakdown of what Russia did during the “ceasefire” Trump was talking about?
Based on Kyiv Post review of Ukrainian Air Force records, Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) records, Ukraine National Emergency Service (DSNS), and individual reporter observation, the following is a partial list of Russian deep strike attacks hitting Ukraine during the temporary pause described by Trump:
Sunday, Jan. 26 (overnight starting evening on Saturday, Jan. 25): Russia launched a 102-drone attack on targets inside Ukraine with attacks lasting into Sunday morning. About half of the aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace and flew on to attack targets at midnight and the state of the “energy ceasefire” first reported by Trump three days later, on the 29th.
These Ukrainian cities were hit or overflown by Russian attack drones:Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Cherkassy, Sumy, Volyn and Lviv. Russian glide bombs hit in Ukraines’ Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions during the day.
Monday, Jan. 27-28: Russia launches 165 drones targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine’s north, central, eastern and southern regions. Two civilians die from a drone hit in Kyiv, and four are injured. One civilian dies in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Two Shahed drones hit a civilian passenger train in Kharkiv region, killing at least five people (civilian transport/targeted as “terrorism” by Zelensky; non-military). Drones set a monastery in Odesa on fire. Glide bomb strikes hit Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Tuesday, Jan. 28-29: One Iskander-M ballistic missile and 147 drones launched overnight; strikes reported in Kyiv region (Bilohorodska community, killing two civilians) and Dnipropetrovsk region (one civilian killed). Civilian casualties in residential/non-military areas, including two dead in a Zaporizhzhia village. Power distribution infrastructure hit in an Odesa industrial district. Glide bomb strikes hit Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Wednesday, Jan. 29-30: One Iskander-M ballistic missile (from Voronezh Oblast) and 111 drones (mostly Shahed-type) launched. Missile hits warehouse near Kharkiv, setting it ablaze. Also hit and damaged are residential areas and unspecified infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, injuring 24 civilians. Glide bombs hit Donetsk region. Drones attack trolley line in Kherson, killing one and injuring five.
Thursday, Jan. 30-31: 105 mostly Shahed-type drones attack 13 locations across Ukraine. Glide bomb attacks vs. Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions.
Friday, Jan. 31-Feb. 1: 90 drones launch, hitting nine locations. Overnight strikes hit residential and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions. During the day, drones hit a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia City, causing a fire in the gynecological department and injuring at least six people. In the adjacent Dnipropetrovsk region, four Shahed drones strike a bus carrying staff employed by the DTEK power company; 12 die, and 16 are injured in the strike.
Saturday, Feb 1-2: Russia launches 172 Shahed-type drones and a single Iskander-M ballistic missile, hitting 12 Ukrainian regions. During daylight hours, Russian aircraft drop glide bombs against civilian targets in Ukraine’s Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions.
Sunday, Feb. 2: At about 5 p.m. Kyiv/10 a.m. Washington D.C. time, Russia initiates the third-biggest drone/missile strike against targets in Ukraine of the war. Ultimately, 450+ drones and 71 missiles are launched, about one-third of them prior to midnight.
At about 10:30 p.m. Kyiv time/3:30 p.m. Washington time: Approximately half the Russian drone strike package is in the air and inside Ukrainian airspace, air raid warning networks report drone groups heading towards Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv and Kharkiv. A meeting between Trump, his entourage, and selected media begins in the White House. About 20 minutes into the back-and-forth, Trump thanks Putin for respecting a “Sunday to Sunday” ceasefire.
Ukrainian power grid and central infrastructure are the main targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Vinnytsia and Sumy. Kharkiv is the worst hit, with a central heating plant destroyed. Damage in other cities is less but substantial, in Kyiv, authorities reported over 1,000 residential buildings without heating in temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below zero Celsius (5 to 4 below zero Fahrenheit).
Ukraine’s Air Force recorded Russian aircraft drops of glide bombs against civilian targets in Ukraine’s Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv regions, including energy infrastructure, but by time stamp, those attacks were made after the ‘energy ceasefire’ claimed by Trump had ended.