Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, the State Statistics Service reported. It rose by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter in 2025, the report shows. Being a flash estimate, the growth figure may be subject to modification.
The state figures were slightly lower than forecasts made by Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which had projected real GDP to grow at 3.4% in Q4 last year in its October 2025 inflation report.
Indepenedent economists also projected a better performance at the end of the year. The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute told Kyiv Post that it projected Q4 GDP to be at 3.75%. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) previously forecasted the Q4 GDP to be at 3.3%, an analyst Oleksandra Betliy told Kyiv Post.
As for previous quarters, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service data says that real GDP rose by 0.9% in Q1 of 2025, by 0.7% in Q2 2025 and by 2.1% in Q3 2025.
The annual inflation rate in December fell to 8% compared with the same point last year, with core inflation (which excludes volatile prices) also decreasing to 8%.
Since inflation is getting closer to the NBU’s 5% target, the NBU has cut the country’s key rate from 15.5% to 15% and announced the start of a cycle of interest rate policy easing.
Harvests – which form the majority of Ukraine’s consumer basket – became more plentiful in 2025 than in 2024, driving down prices. However, Russia’s attacks in 2026 have massively damaged the energy grid, putting additional pressure on prices.
However, Russia’s strikes have again dented Ukraine’s real GDP growth estimates, as calculated by the NBU, from 1.9% to 1.8% for 2025. This also led to the NBU decreasing the key rate slower than previously forecast.