Periodic strikes on port and logistics infrastructure have slashed monthly shipping volumes by up to 20-30%, leaving Ukraine with a surplus of 10 million tonnes of unsold grain in 2025 due to Russia’s persistent attacks, the Economic Ministry reports.
The Black Sea corridor remains the primary route for over 90% of agricultural exports, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotsky said in an interview, emphasizing that it’s not just a primary route but an economic necessity, with rail transport handling only 7-8% of volumes and the remainder moving by road.
“The maritime corridor remains the key route from an economic perspective: it ensures the largest volumes of transport and is the most cost-effective for the export of agricultural products,” Vysotsky said, talking to RBC-Ukraine.
According to Vysotsky, the logistical challenge is complicated more by Moscow’s use of political leverage rather than fair competition on global markets. Russia proposes additional trade terms to the governments rather than win markets through price competition, winning customers politically rather than using economic benefits, Vysotsky said.
This is paired with Moscow`s plans to ban ships visiting Ukrainian, Romanian, or Bulgarian ports from its Black Sea terminals, codifying new restrictive criteria for ship owners and operators.
While Ukraine has managed to increase its agricultural output despite the war, the resulting surplus remains trapped due to the systematic destruction of ports.
“In 2025, the grain harvest reached 61.8 million tonnes, up from 56 million in 2024. With internal consumption at 16 million tonnes, our export potential is estimated at 47 million tonnes,” Vysotsky noted. “While that 10-million-tonne surplus is not market-critical, it is economically significant as both producers and the state lose out on vital foreign currency revenue.”
NBU warns of currency pressure and risks to future harvests
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) noted in its 2026 January Inflation Report that further damage to port infrastructure is already delaying the export of grain and ore, leading to a direct decline in export revenue. While the NBU baseline scenario assumes a gradual normalization of port operations starting in Q2 this year, persistent logistical constraints pose long-term risks to the agricultural sector. According to the report, the prolonged inability to move goods may force farmers to reduce planting areas due to a sharp drop in profitability.
These agricultural losses are added by another problem Ukraine’s economy is facing as a result of Russian strikes – increased imports of fuel and energy equipment to counter the electricity deficit, the NBU wrote.
Ukraine’s central bank warned that if port damage continues, export earnings will fall below projections. When combined with the need for higher imports,, these factors will create additional pressure on the currency market and domestic prices. The Black Sea corridor is the key pillar to economic growth, and its stable operations are tied to the security of its maritime infrastructure.
Following a $150 million export drop in late 2025, the NBU forecasts a further $1 billion decline in the first quarter of 2026, forcing a costly reorientation of exports via European rail, Kyiv Post previously wrote. This financial strain is compounded by an energy gap: after attacks in late 2025 pushed the electricity deficit to 7%, the NBU doubled its 2026 deficit forecast to 6%, a move expected to lower annual GDP growth to 1.8%.