ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2026
Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.
- Following a short pause in Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy critical national infrastructure (CNI), overnight 02-03 February 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale multi-axis, multi-weapon strike package utilising Long Range Aviation (LRA) bombers, primarily against CNI targets in Ukraine. Russia reportedly launched four TSIRKON hypersonic missiles, 32 short range ballistic missiles and up to 35 cruise missiles, alongside approximately 450 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems.
- Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s electricity network has been repeatedly targeted by multiple, focused Russian strike campaigns. By February 2026, the cumulative damage of four years of Russian strikes has almost certainly undermined Ukraine’s ability to generate sufficient electricity to meet winter peak demand. Compounding this, Ukraine’s electricity network is being strained by the rapid drop in temperatures seen so far in 2026, meaning Ukraine’s energy system is experiencing its most acute crisis of the winter.
- To mitigate the impact of the colder temperatures, and loss of power generation to Russian strikes, Ukraine has introduced emergency measures including the introduction of a nationwide repair effort and widespread scheduled power outages. Following recent severe weather (which has exasperated the damage from Russia’s years of strikes) and given the reported 2.9GW deficit of 15.5GW nationwide demand, Ukrenergo applied emergency power cuts in almost all regions of Ukraine.