Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has warned that Belarus has effectively become a Russian military platform under Alexander Lukashenko and must be included in any future security or peace arrangements related to Ukraine.
Speaking to RBC-Ukraine in an interview published on Tuesday, Feb. 10, Tsikhanouskaya outlined the risks of sidelining Minsk in negotiations, cautioned against legitimizing Lukashenko through sanctions relief, and argued that Ukraine’s security is inseparable from Belarus’s future.
Kyiv Post highlights the key points from the interview below.
Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Tsikhanouskaya said Lukashenko has turned Belarus into a full-fledged rear base for Russia’s war effort, with Russian troops, weapons and joint military exercises entrenched on Belarusian territory.
“Under Lukashenko, Belarus has effectively become a Russian military platform,” she said. “As long as he remains in power, Belarus will always pose a threat to Ukraine and the entire region.”
She noted that strikes on Ukraine were launched from Belarusian territory and that Minsk continues to support Moscow’s war effort despite public opposition from much of Belarusian society.
Lukashenko’s responsibility and international accountability
Tsikhanouskaya said two cases involving Lukashenko are currently under consideration at the International Criminal Court (ICC), including allegations of crimes against humanity and complicity in the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children, a war crime that led the ICC to issue a warrant for Putin’s arrest in March 2023.
“We have all the evidence of Lukashenko’s involvement,” she said. “He must be held accountable not only for crimes against the Belarusian people, but also for war crimes committed against Ukraine.”
She added that Belarusian democratic forces are sharing this evidence with Ukrainian authorities and international partners.
Political prisoners, sanctions, and Western engagement
Tsikhanouskaya rejected the idea that Lukashenko’s recent release of political prisoners reflects any genuine shift in policy, saying the regime is using detainees as leverage.
“He is not releasing people for humanitarian reasons,” she said. “This is not a change of course. Lukashenko is using political prisoners as hostages to try to soften sanctions and gain legitimacy.”
While welcoming humanitarian efforts that save lives, she warned that lifting war-related sanctions would create loopholes benefiting Russia and prolong repression in Belarus.
Nearly 500 people were jailed for their political views in Belarus in 2025, according to Viasna, a human rights group that monitors the number of political prisoners being held by the authoritarian Belarusian regime. Viasna also said that there were more than 1,200 convictions last year and, despite a number of releases brokered by the United States, it estimates there are still 1,120 political prisoners in the country.
In December 2025, Lukashenko released 123 political prisoners. Among those pardoned were civil rights activist Maria Kolesnikova, former presidential candidate Viktor Babaryko, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Beliatski. Before that, in June, dozens of other political prisoners were released, including Belarus’s top jailed opposition leader Syarhey Tsikhanouski – the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Belarus’s dependence on Moscow and limits of maneuver
According to Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s regime survives only because of Moscow’s political, economic and military backing, leaving him with little real autonomy.
“He is completely dependent on the Kremlin – politically, economically and militarily,” she said. “Without Russian support, he would not have survived.”
She dismissed suggestions that Lukashenko could distance himself from Moscow, saying such claims underestimate the depth of Belarus’s subordination and Lukashenko’s dependency.
Risks of a peace deal that ignores Belarus
Tsikhanouskaya warned that peace talks or security arrangements focused solely on Ukraine could cement Russia’s control over Belarus if Minsk is excluded.
“If Belarus is left out of a so-called ‘big deal,’ it risks becoming a consolation prize for the Kremlin,” she said. “That would freeze the status quo and preserve Russia’s ability to threaten Ukraine in the future.”
She insisted that without a free Belarus, neither Ukraine nor Europe can be secure.
Ukraine’s evolving approach to Belarus
Tsikhanouskaya welcomed what she described as a shift in Kyiv’s policy, saying Ukraine now clearly distinguishes between Lukashenko’s regime and the Belarusian people.
“There will be no free Belarus without a free Ukraine – and no secure Ukraine without a free Belarus,” she said.
She said discussions with President Volodymyr Zelensky included appointing a Ukrainian special envoy on Belarus and launching strategic consultations with Belarusian democratic forces.
Tsikhanouskaya and Zelensky held their first bilateral meeting on Jan. 25 in Vilnius, focusing on jailed Belarusian activists, pressure on Lukashenko, and Ukraine’s support for democratic forces in Belarus.
Belarusian democratic forces and Russia’s opposition
Tsikhanouskaya drew a clear line between Belarusian democratic forces and the Russian opposition, rejecting attempts to treat them as interchangeable.
“Our red line has always been clear: Belarusians are not the regime, and Belarusians are not Russians,” she said. “We have no imperial ambitions, and the majority of Belarusians oppose the war.”
She added that cooperation with Russian opposition figures is possible only if they unequivocally condemn the invasion and respect the sovereignty of Ukraine and Belarus.