Western sanctions against Russia are taking a long time to impact the country’s war economy, Latvia’s defense Minister Andris Sprūds told Euractiv just days before the EU prepares to adopt its twentieth package of trade measures against Moscow.
Ever since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago, successive waves of EU sanctions have aimed to put pressure on Russia’s economy, but Sprūds notes it’s not inflicting enough damage to force Moscow to abandon its military endeavours.
“It is taking longer than I expected,” Sprūds told Euractiv in an interview. “Sanctions will not likely immediately change the behaviour of Putin’s authoritarian regime, including in Ukraine and hybrid warfare activities,” he added, saying that sanctions usually have a long-term impact.
The Commission put forward a new package of sanctions at the start of February, and the bloc plans to approve the next package by the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February.
As part of the measures, the European Commission has pitched expanding the EU’s blacklist of Moscow’s shadow fleet and tightening restrictions on LNG tankers and icebreakers to restrict Russian gas exports. The aim has been to stem Europe’s imports of Russian energy.
Where to hit them next
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many experts and politicians have viewed attempts to damage energy and communications infrastructure as part of Moscow’s hybrid warfare against Western countries.
That is especially important for Latvia, since the Baltic states have been exposed to attacks on their critical infrastructure since the start of the war. Tankers with opaque ownership – believed to be associated with the Kremlin – have repeatedly cut or damaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, threatening the region’s communications.
On New Year’s Eve, an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged, allegedly by an anchor. Another cable was later hit between Latvia and Lithuania at the start of January, and an investigation is still ongoing.
Targeting these cargoes is “challenging,” Sprūds said. “We cannot put a military vessel next to every metre of undersea cable.” He noted that sealing off the Baltic Sea is nearly impossible because it is shared with Russia.
One way to counter these attacks is to strengthen monitoring and surveillance in the region. Latvia is part of an eight-country coalition that committed to building an Eastern Flank Watch, one of the Commission’s four “flagship” defense projects aimed at preparing the continent to defend itself by 2030.
But it is still unclear which specific projects will result from that initiative. The announcement was made in December, but few concrete details have since emerged.