Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian, US, and Russian representatives concluded trilateral and multilateral negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 18.
- Ukraine continues to offer significant concessions to advance the peace negotiations process, including compromising on territorial concessions.
- Russian officials signaled that Russia would not be satisfied with just territorial concessions and reiterated commitment to Russia’s original war goals, which include dismantling the NATO alliance.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting informational conditions to restart limited, rolling involuntary reserve call-ups as Russia appears to be struggling to replace its losses in Ukraine with existing force generation mechanisms.
- Putin likely aims to use these limited call-ups to maintain Russia’s loss rates and the current tempo of offensive operations — not to significantly build up the Russian force grouping fighting in Ukraine and flood the front with more forces.
- The Kremlin has been setting conditions to allow it to conduct a rolling, involuntary reserve call-up since at least October 2025.
- Putin is resorting to preparations for further involuntary reserve call-ups from a place of weakness, as Russia is likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near exhaustion of its expensive voluntary recruitment system in 2026.
- The Kremlin is likely pushing for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s long-held demands in ongoing peace negotiations imminently to secure its war aims without having to make uncomfortable sacrifices to do so.
- Russian officials’ messaging about the recent throttling of Telegram remains disjointed as the Kremlin attempts to navigate the repeated backlash the restrictions have generated among Russian milbloggers.
- The Kremlin is looking for new excuses to justify its intensified Telegram censorship campaign.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Velykyi Burluk.
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