On Feb.10 of this year, the New York Times, a paper that has described itself as having “set the gold standard for American journalism,” ran an article with the following headline: “Russia Nears Capture of Key Ukrainian Towns After Year of Grinding Assaults.”
This might well reinforce in casual readers the myth of the Russian army as an unstoppable juggernaut, and suggest that Ukraine’s collapse was inevitable. The truth is very different and well worth understanding as we approach Feb. 22, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Britain’s Defence Intelligence office posted last week that “Russia has likely sustained approximately 1,245,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion in 2022.”
This is an enormous number, but how does it compare with other wars Russia has fought in the past few decades?
- During the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1989), the Soviet Union suffered approximately 14,453 to 26,000 fatalities and over 53,000 wounded. [Bear in mind, that’s the entire USSR, including Ukraine, not just Russia].
- The First Chechen War resulted in as many as 14,000 dead and 52,000 wounded.
- The Second Chechen War’s toll may have been as high as 25,000 dead and 30,000 wounded.
So the total casualties of all three of those brutal wars amounts 200,000, a mere 16 percent of what Russia has lost fighting in Ukraine in the past four years.
Furthermore, Bloomberg news on Feb. 16 quoted the UK’s Defence Minister as saying: “Russia is increasingly relying on foreign fighters to continue its offensive in Ukraine, and its losses are now outstripping its recruitment capacity.” Yes, you read that right – Russia is currently unable to mobilize enough men to make up for its dead and wounded. Clearly, this is unsustainable.
It’s also useful to note that the quality of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has significantly degraded into an uneven, low-skill force characterized by high attrition and minimal training.
What has Putin achieved at such a staggering cost? Well, the Institute for the Study of War notes that in 2025 “Russian gains in Ukraine amounted to 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s territory.” Remember, this was the war that was supposed to have captured Kyiv in four days.
And a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies states that: “After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century…” Indeed, some historians have described the Russian advance as more sluggish than WWI’s Battle of the Somme.
So for those who believe it’s only a matter of time until Ukraine caves in to its much larger and stronger neighbor, think again. The only way Ukraine loses this war is if the West loses its nerve – which isn’t out of the question. But with sufficient military, financial and diplomatic support, the Russian bear will be put back in its cage, wounded and weakened and no longer able to threaten its neighbors for a very long time.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.