Over the past week, Ukrainians have sensed a change in the algorithm of Russian air attacks.
Russia always wants Ukrainians to tremble at the thought of any contact with their negotiators or with representatives from other states that want Ukraine to capitulate.
Official meetings involving a Ukrainian delegation or President Zelensky himself have always been accompanied by especially massive missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, residential buildings, and transportation routes.
The most recent Munich Security Conference, however, proceeded without the usual noisy soundtrack of explosions and death tolls. Russian attacks continued, of course. Hundreds of drones, dozens of missiles continued to blow up Ukrainian homes and businesses, but this was “business as usual.” You could not call it an “escalation.”
In his closing remarks, acting conference leader Wolfgang Ischinger said that the future of the European continent depended on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. That outcome remains unknown, but does the change in the Kremlin’s usual pattern of shelling reveal a shift in strategy?
In the lead-up to and during the Munich Conference, Ukrainian forces carried out localized counteroffensive operations in Zaporizhzhia region and the Donbas.
These counteroffensive strikes were not officially reported and we lack details, but the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed that Ukraine has liberated more than 200 square kilometers of its territory in the South during the past two weeks.
The French international television channel TV 5 Monde added that until the beginning of February, Russian troops had been taking advantage of illegal access to Starlink communications, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’(AFU) success coincided with the blocking of this access.
For Russian milbloggers, and indeed for Russians in general, the main topic right now is not the Munich Conference or the Ukraine’s localized counteroffensive, but the “slowing down” if not to say shutting down of Telegram messenger, a key platform for bloggers.
This de facto shutdown happened immediately after Elon Musk disabled the Russian military’s massive and illegal access to Starlink. The resulting setbacks for the Russian military sparked a wave of despair on pro-Kremlin milbloggers’ Telegram channels, and perhaps this was one of the reasons for the disruption of the popular messaging app.
Russians’ discontent with the shutdown, however, has proven far more pronounced than the now-forgotten short-lived protests against the war in the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Surprised by the unexpected courage of compatriots in their protest, officials from Roskomnadzor, Russia’s main internet censor, have announced that they are negotiating with Telegram management and that if Telegram complies with Russia’s demands, its service in the Russian Federation will be restored.
Immediately after the Munich Conference, Ukrainian drones struck the infrastructure of Russian border towns, and now several of them are experiencing problems with heating and electricity, just like most of Ukraine.
As usual, the city of Belgorod, located only 72 km from Kharkiv, Ukraine, suffered the most. It is the most easily accessible large city for Ukraine’s retaliatory strikes. However, Moscow refuses to provide Belgorod with additional air defense systems.
The acting Governor of Belgorod Region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, has repeatedly requested additional assistance from Moscow, but no help has been forthcoming. Recently, he stated that he has no choice but to seek assistance from the International Committee of the Red Cross.
This statement could have been made either to put pressure on the Kremlin or to force Putin to remove Gladkov from his position as regional governor – a position which is becoming increasingly unenviable.
The residents of the Ukrainian town of Kramatorsk – fifteen kilometers from the front line, have experienced constant attacks for nearly four years.
Last year, the city was hit by rockets, drones, and artillery 240 times. Up to 80,000 people, including about 5,000 children, still live in the city. They have been offered free-of-charge evacuation to Zakarpattia or the Ivano-Frankivsk region in western Ukraine, but those who remain in the town are in no hurry to take up the offers.
In interviews with foreign journalists, some elderly residents have stated that they would remain in the city even if it were occupied by Russia. They usually don’t tell Ukrainian journalists this.
Young people in Kramatorsk don’t want to join Russia and are ready to leave for other Ukrainian cities if the threat of occupation becomes imminent.
An interesting phenomenon of unfinished crimes is also part of the Kramatorsk area’s algorithm.
Recently, a car was stolen from soldiers and then found abandoned. The thieves filled it with gas at one of the city’s gas stations and left it there.
A week or so before, an Orthodox monastery near Kramatorsk was robbed overnight. The robbers removed the heavy bells and church furnishings. But all of this, along with a trailer belonging to the robbers, was found hidden in a nearby forest.
It’s impossible to smuggle stolen goods through the densely populated checkpoints and, if you try to bypass them, you are very likely to hit a mine.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it were someday revealed that these fruitless, wartime thefts formed part of an attempt by local criminal elements to maintain their underhanded skills.
For now, the city holds on; bakeries bake bread, and construction workers continually erect new concrete shelters. Residents of Kramatorsk don’t spend time thinking about how their future is connected with that of the entire European continent.
But in fact, that’s exactly how it is. Acting Head of the Munich Security Conference, Ischinger, knows this. All of Europe knows it.
Russia understands it, too. And perhaps that’s why the Kremlin is looking for something new, for a new algorithm of this war, trying to devise new strategies to win a greater say in the future of Europe.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.