European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of a US-brokered peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in 2026, Reuters reported on Thursday, Feb. 19, citing five senior officials.
The heads of five European intelligence agencies, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Russia does not appear interested in ending the war quickly.
Four of them assessed that Moscow is using ongoing negotiations with Washington to pursue sanctions relief and potential business arrangements.
The latest round of talks, held this week in Geneva, was described by one official as “negotiation theatre.”
Deep Divide With Washington
The comments underscore a growing gap between European capitals and the White House.
According to multiple sources, cited by Reuters earlier, Washington is aiming to secure a peace deal by June, ahead of congressional midterm elections in November.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to reach an agreement.
But one European intelligence chief told Reuters that Russia’s strategic objectives remain unchanged, including the removal of President Volodymyr Zelensky and transforming Ukraine into a neutral buffer state.
Another official said Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace, arguing that its economy is not close to collapse.
The main obstacle remains a dramatic disagreement over territorial issues, with both sides firmly holding their positions.
Russia currently occupies about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, and is demanding full control of Donetsk as part of any agreement – including territory they have not been able to conquer in nearly 12 years of war – a condition Kyiv has rejected without firm Western security guarantees.
A third official warned that even if Ukraine conceded territory, Moscow would likely raise further demands, suggesting that territorial concessions would mark the beginning rather than the end of negotiations.
Concerns Over Negotiation Capacity
One intelligence chief also questioned the level of experience in negotiating with Russia across Western governments.
The US delegation is led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. While both have worked on diplomatic initiatives during Trump’s presidency, neither is a career diplomat nor a Russia specialist.
In response to Reuters request for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said “anonymous criticism does not help efforts to end the war.”
Sanctions and Economic Incentives
Two intelligence officials told Reuters that Moscow is attempting to separate negotiations into two tracks: one focused on ending the war and another centered on bilateral economic cooperation with the United States, potentially including sanctions relief.
President Zelensky has previously said Ukrainian intelligence indicated that US and Russian negotiators discussed potential cooperation deals worth up to $12 trillion, allegedly proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
European officials did not provide further details but suggested such proposals could be designed to appeal both to Trump and to sanctioned Russian business elites.
While one official described Russia as resilient, another warned of significant financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing limited access to capital markets, high borrowing costs and the shrinking liquid portion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
Despite intensive diplomacy, European intelligence leaders told Reuters they see little indication that Moscow is prepared to compromise on its core objectives in the near term.
The latest round of trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva wrapped up Wednesday, with Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky describing the session as “tough but businesslike.” He said a new round of discussions will take place in the near future.
Despite tensions on the political track of the negotiations, the military track proved more productive, with negotiators shaping ceasefire terms to take effect once the fighting stops.
A source familiar with the discussions told CNN that negotiators made “incremental but significant progress,” agreeing on common terms and technical details to avoid confusion and make the ceasefire workable.
Zelensky confirmed that the military track is nearing completion, saying negotiators are close to a full draft on ceasefire monitoring.