Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Western sources continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives are not limited to control of Ukrainian territory — in line with ISW’s longstanding assessment based on repeated Kremlin public statements.
- Western sources tied Putin’s unwillingness to compromise in negotiations to his belief that the Russian economy can continue to support a protracted war, which is consistent with ISW’s longstanding assessment of Putin’s theory of victory.
- The Kremlin is attempting to distract the United States with bilateral economic deals in order to secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to move toward self-sufficiency, but Western support remains critical to this endeavor.
- Russian forces have reportedly adapted their Geran-2 drones to be “mothership” drones that carry first-person view (FPV) drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.
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