We have just passed the four-year anniversary of the war. Actually, it is the 12th anniversary if one starts the war back in February 2014 when the initial invasion occurred. Thousands of articles, page upon page has been written about the cause of the war and how it might have been avoided. Russian bots and propaganda have done their best to try to convince the world that Russia was not at fault. That Russia had no choice. But time has a way of testing and proving or disproving many statements about the war.
After four years, there are five immutable conclusions that can be drawn about the cause of this war. These are not merely conjecture, but are firmly established by the facts we have observed ed over the last four years.
It has been about the land all along
Why did the war occur. Putin has given many reasons. Sometimes it was difficult to keep track of all the reasons he gave.
The invasion was not to denazify Ukraine.
It was not to protect Russian speaking people in Donbas.
It was not to stop NATO encroachment. (NATO now has two new members thanks to Putin.)
It has always been about the land. And what is contained under the land. But for the land demand, the war would have been over long ago. Land was the reason Russia invaded Ukraine. Land is the reason there has been no peace. Putin is convinced that he has been chosen to rebuild the Russian Empire. He was devastated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. He called it the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Russia’s prestige and status were lost. He believes it is his job to bring them back.
And the way to do that is to instill fear in the hearts of his neighbors.
Ukraine did not roll over like it did in 2014
Russia expected Ukraine to roll over like it did in 2014. There was no resistance. There was no fighting. Putin predicted he would take Kyiv in three days. But Putin was wrong and his intelligence was especially wrong.
Putin expected an Obama-like response from the US. They would send blankets but no military help.
He expected Europe to cower. After all, they had depended on the US for their defense since World War II. Putin believed they lacked the will and the ability to fight.
But Ukraine has decided it was time to fight. Europe has realized it is time to shore up its national defenses. Everyone in the West has decided to draw the line in the sand with Ukraine.
And all of this has caused great embarrassment and humiliation to Russia and to Putin. Unfortunately, this has created an added element to the settlement negotiations. Ukraine and the West must find a way to allow Russia to save face in order to successfully bring the war to a conclusion.
Some believed that at some point the world would become so civilized that war would become a thing of the past.
Russian support is waning
Russian support is waning internally and externally. Internally, recruiting has become infinitely more difficult. Desertions are more common. Hundreds of thousands of young Russian men have left the country.
Putin has pretty much cleaned out his prisons. He has had to resort to soldiers from African and Asian countries to fill out the ranks – especially North Korea. The Putin meat grinder has been working non-stop for four years. Casualties for Russia have passed 1,250,000.
Soldiers are starting to refuse orders. Morale is down. Desertions are up. The polls show that the majority of Russians believe the war has gone on too long and should be brought to a conclusion.
Putin’s allies are getting tired. They see themselves inviting punishment from the West for no benefit to themselves except perhaps cheap oil. Russia has become a pariah in the world. Their association with Putin lowers their standing in the world.
Russia cannot continue the war on their own and must keep their allies on board or lose. The National Wealth Fund is almost depleted. GDP is flat. Shortages are cropping up everywhere. Russia is having to borrow money to continue to fund Putin’s war.
This was a wake-up call for Europe
Some good has come from the war. The war has been a big wake-up call to Europe. Europe had been relying on the US for its defense since World War II. And putting its money into social programs rather than defense.
This war has made Europe realize the chances it was taking by depending on others for their defense. Some believed that at some point the world would become so civilized that war would become a thing of the past. And that militaries would no longer be needed. Wars would be fought economically rather than militarily.
But that is not true. And may never be true. As long as evil resides upon the face of the earth, wars will be part of life.
Because of Putin’s war, two European nations have joined NATO. These were two nations that had expressed little interest in the past. But they realized that with Russia and Putin on their borders, they could no longer sit idly by.
Most of Europe has dramatically increased its defense budgets. Putin’s actions have created a Europe that is much more formidable and prepared. But increasing their national defense will take years. Still, there is no better time to start than the present.
Nobody expected that Ukraine would hold out for four years.
The US has not been reliable as a partner
This point follows the wake-up call. The US has not been a reliable partner. In 2014, Obama did nothing. He sent a few blankets.
Biden in 2020 did send weapons and weapons systems. He sent much more than Obama or Trump. But Biden placed unreasonable restrictions on them and was slow in providing the quantities needed. In many cases, they arrived too late to do any good. Biden was too afraid of escalation, and this made his efforts less effective.
US President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024 had no coherent plan. His actions were governed by the situation that presented itself at that particular time. And his actions were not consistent. At times he would be angry at his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. At other times he would be angry at Putin. There were pressure points that could be applied in negotiations that he failed to apply.
His lack of a coherent strategy created an impossible task for Ukraine.
Trump failed to present a united front with Europe, which has hurt his credibility. Trump has been proceeding without a game plan. He needs to get one. For the sake of the West. But most of all for the sake of Ukraine.
How Ukraine prevails
These are the facts we have learned over the four years since Putin’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Nobody expected that Ukraine would hold out for four years. They have. Through determination. Through innovation. Through sheer will power.
We can only pray that the war will end soon. That there will be peace. But not any peace. Not peace at any price. A tremendous price has been paid by Ukraine. And the peace that is purchased needs to be a lasting peace. One that will last for generations. One that will justify the sacrifice that has been made.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.