Ukraine will require an estimated $587.7 billion in recovery and reconstruction funding over 2026-2035, according to a joint assessment presented in Kyiv on Monday – marking a 12% increase from last year’s estimate.
That figure is equivalent to almost three times Ukraine’s projected 2025 gross domestic product.
The updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) was conducted jointly by the World Bank Group, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission, and the United Nations, with support from additional partners.
Covering the period from Feb. 24, 2022, to Dec. 31, 2025, it reflects nearly four years of war impact and builds on four previous assessments. The RDNA5 figure represents an increase of $64.1 billion, or 12.3%, compared to RDNA4.
RDNA5 estimates $195.1 billion in direct damage during the 46 months of full-scale war, alongside $666.7 billion in economic losses – comprising 64 months of actual losses and 18 months of projected losses. The assessment also identifies $15.25 billion in priority recovery financing for 2026 alone.
At least $20.3 billion in needs have already been met through urgent repairs and early recovery efforts.
Direct damage to buildings and infrastructure reaches $195.1 billion
Total direct damage by sector between Feb. 24, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2025, estimated at $195.1 billion, with housing, transport, and energy accounting for the largest losses. (Image courtesy of the World Bank / RDNA5)
Direct damage to Ukraine’s buildings and infrastructure continues to rise. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the total stood at $195.1 billion – up $19 billion, or 10.8%, since RDNA4, and roughly double the level recorded in the first assessment in 2022.
Housing accounts for the largest share of destruction, with $61.1 billion in damage – 31.3% of the total.
The transport sector takes second place, with $40.3 billion in damage (20.6%) – reflecting the extensive destruction of roads, bridges, and rail infrastructure in the course of Russia’s full-scale war. Energy and extractives account for $24.8 billion (12.7%), while commerce and industry have sustained $19.2 billion in damage (9.8%).
Education and science account for 7.1% of total damage, agriculture for 6.2%, and water supply and sanitation for 4%, underscoring the broad impact on public facilities and service delivery assets.
The increase since RDNA4 is primarily driven by continued attacks on critical infrastructure, though the report notes that improved data availability, refined methodologies, and exchange rate adjustments also contributed to higher estimates.
Comparison of total direct damage across successive assessments, rising from $97.4 billion in RDNA1 to $195.1 billion in RDNA5. (Image courtesy of the World Bank / RDNA5)
Geographically, damage remains concentrated in frontline regions and major urban centers. Frontline oblasts account for 75% of total damage, including Donetsk region (27.2%), Kharkiv region (16.5%), Zaporizhzhia (9.9%), Luhansk (7.9%), and Kherson regions (7.2%).
The city of Kyiv recorded a 49% increase in damage compared to RDNA4, with total damage in Kyiv city and Kyivska region estimated at $17.9 billion.
Transport, energy, and housing top $587.7 billion recovery bill
Recovery and reconstruction needs by sector over 2026-2035, totaling $587.7 billion, with infrastructure and social sectors accounting for the largest shares. (Image courtesy of the World Bank / RDNA5)
The report puts total recovery and reconstruction needs at $587.7 billion over the 10-year horizon from 2026 to 2035.
The largest needs are in transport, totaling $96.3 billion, or 16.4% of the total, reflecting the scale of damage to roads, railways, bridges, and logistics networks.
Energy and extractives follow at $90.6 billion (15.4%), as repeated strikes have severely affected generation capacity and transmission and distribution systems. Housing ranks third, with $89.8 billion (15.3%) required to address the large-scale destruction of residential buildings.
Several sectors recorded particularly sharp increases in needs compared to RDNA4, including water supply and sanitation (up 55.4%), energy and extractives (33.7%), transport (24.2%), and telecommunications, digital, and media (21.1%).
Comparison of total 10-year recovery needs across successive assessments, rising from $348.5 billion in RDNA1 to $587.7 billion in RDNA5. (Image courtesy of the World Bank / RDNA5)
What Ukraine did in its recovery plan so far
The report also outlines how Ukraine is restructuring its recovery architecture.
Planning and prioritization for 2026 are anchored in ongoing Public Investment Management reform, aligned with the Ukraine Plan and EU Regulation 2024/792 establishing the Ukraine Facility.
State-level public investments are consolidated into a Single Project Pipeline (SPP). Subnational investments are to be organized into 24 regional and 1,469 local pipelines, with each region and municipality maintaining its own SPP.
For 2026, the government has identified $15.25 billion in recovery and reconstruction priorities. Of that amount, $11.27 billion, or around 74%, relates to public investment projects and programs originating from the SPP. The remaining $3.98 billion, or 26%, comprises non-investment programs.
State budget allocations and confirmed partner financing currently cover about $5.77 billion – roughly 38% of total 2026 needs – leaving a financing gap of approximately $9.48 billion, or 62%.
The assessment is regarded as the key verified estimate of the losses and damage caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion since February 2022. With each iteration, the financial toll continues to grow, underscoring both the scale of destruction and the mounting challenge of rebuilding a country still at war.
The previous assessment, RDNA4, had estimated total recovery and reconstruction needs at $524 billion over the next decade, compared with $486 billion in the assessment before that – an 8% increase, or about $37 billion. Like RDNA5, it captured damages incurred between Feb. 24, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2025. However, the press release accompanying the earlier report cautioned that the damage figures were not final, noting that the scale of destruction continues to evolve as Russia’s war against Ukraine persists.