Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The fifth year of Russia’s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims tha things can only get worse for Ukraine the longer Kyiv delays surrendering to Russian demands.
- Events on the battlefield refute Moscow’s claims that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable and that Ukraine should surrender to Russia’s demands before its position deteriorates further.
- Putin’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year with Russia having failed to achieve any of its original war aims and facing setbacks on the battlefield amid mounting casualties.
- Russia’s challenges on and off the battlefield are forcing Kremlin leadership to make difficult decisions to sustain its war effort, as ISW has long forecasted that it would have to do.
- The Kremlin is attempting to divert attention on the anniversary away from the Russian military’s inability to achieve Putin’s objectives.
- The Kremlin is using the SVR claims to relitigate its justifications for the war that it initiated, which has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s participation in World War II without accomplishing any of the Kremlin’s original aims.
- Russia is also using the SVR’s claim as an excuse to threaten the UK and France with potential nuclear strikes, likely in order to disrupt ongoing discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
- The Kremlin may additionally be planning to blame Ukraine for a Russian-generated radiological incident in Ukraine, possibly to convince the West to abandon Ukraine or as a further attempt to break Ukrainian will to continue to resist.
- The SVR claim is also part of a wider Kremlin effort to justify future limited involuntary reserve callups, which are likely to be highly unpopular at home.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Slovyansk.
See the original here.