France and the United Kingdom are Europe’s only nuclear powers, while most European states rely primarily on the United States for deterrence.
According to a Reuters report published on Thursday, Feb. 26, concerns have intensified following US President Donald Trump’s outreach to Russia over its war against Ukraine and his sharper rhetoric toward traditional allies, including threats to seize Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO member Denmark.
Earlier this month in Munich, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin had opened discussions with France on a potential European nuclear deterrent. Macron has described the issue as requiring a “holistic approach of defence and security.”
The Kremlin has sought to frame the debate as a potential escalation. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) alleged that Britain and France may be preparing to transfer nuclear weapons to Ukraine – a claim made without presenting evidence and not confirmed by Western officials. The statement, cited by state news agency TASS, said London and Paris were disguising such a move as part of Ukraine’s domestic development program.
Other governments, including Nordic countries traditionally aligned closely with Washington, have cautiously expressed interest.
Questions over French capabilities
Despite renewed debate, European officials privately question whether France’s arsenal could credibly extend protection across the continent. Concerns include financing, decision-making authority over launch orders, and whether expanding nuclear capabilities could divert resources from urgently needed conventional forces.
France spends about €5.6 billion ($6.6 billion) annually to maintain its stockpile of approximately 290 submarine- and air-launched nuclear warheads, the world’s fourth-largest arsenal.
“For Europe, if you really want to go it alone… you have to build up your own nuclear capability. That costs billions and billions of euros,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament in January. “You would lose the ultimate guarantor of our freedom, which is the US nuclear umbrella.”
Under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements, the United States is estimated to station around 100 nuclear bombs in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. In the event of conflict, aircraft from those non-nuclear states would be tasked with delivering US weapons.
US Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby told allies in Brussels this month that Washington would continue extending nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it invests more than $1 trillion in modernizing its own arsenal.
French officials say Paris does not seek to replace the US umbrella or compete with NATO.
“While US nuclear forces’ primary mission is to target adversary nuclear arsenals, their French and British counterparts aim to inflict unacceptable damage on the political, military and economic centres of potential adversaries,” Etienne Marcuz of the independent Foundation for Strategic Research think tank wrote in a recent note. “This doctrine requires far fewer warheads to be credible.”
Understanding France’s doctrine
French officials say the goal of Monday’s speech is to clarify what France’s nuclear doctrine can – and cannot – provide to European partners.
A central element of France’s posture is “strategic ambiguity” regarding the circumstances under which nuclear weapons might be used and how French “vital interests” intersect with broader European security.
Some partners say that lack of clarity raises questions about credibility.
“We first want to see what France has to offer… It’s not about having deterrence. It’s about how credible it is,” a senior Eastern European diplomat said.
Analysts note that a broader European nuclear role would also require long-range conventional strike capabilities exceeding 2,000 km (1,243 miles), which Europe currently lacks.
Developing tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use is considered even less likely, as it could trigger concerns under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, long supported by European governments.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged the shifting strategic debate.
“We understand where these discussions are coming from. They’re stemming from the fact that our transatlantic alliance is not what it used to be,” Kallas told reporters in Brussels this month.
“My personal view is that… if we have more nuclear weapons all around the world, I don’t think we’re going to be in a more peaceful world,” she said.
Macron’s address
Macron is expected to deliver the speech at France’s nuclear submarine base in Brittany as part of the customary once-per-presidential-term update on nuclear doctrine.
France maintains what it describes as a minimal but credible deterrent designed to impose losses severe enough to dissuade any adversary from launching a first strike.
French officials say the strategic landscape has shifted significantly since Macron’s previous doctrine speech in 2020, citing Russia’s expanding arsenal and heightened nuclear rhetoric since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
One principle, however, remains unchanged: only the French president can authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
“It is the case and will remain so,” a French presidential adviser said.