ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to posture himself as a peacemaker and potential mediator between Iran and the Gulf States amid the ongoing US-Israeli operation against Iran.
  • Iranian threats against vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are causing significant spikes in global oil prices which, if sustained, could reverse over a year of declining Russian oil revenues.
  • US allies and partners in the Middle East should learn from Ukraine’s years of experience defending against almost nightly large-scale Russian missile and drone strike packages, including some comprised in large part of Iranian-origin attack drones.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia will shift its long-range missile and drone strikes target set to include Ukrainian logistics and water infrastructure going into Spring 2026.
  • Russian forces advanced in the Slovyansk and Pokrovsk directions.

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