US and Israeli attacks on Iran raise the question of what comes next and whether fear of a wider war is justified. The core claim is that Tehran and Moscow have treated this as a long conflict, using proxies and deniable violence while the West debates the label. Kyiv Post special correspondent Jason Smart, PhD, who has studied the Putin Regime for 20 years, which was the subject of his master’s and doctoral dissertations.
Inside Iran, the immediate issue is control. The remnants of the Revolutionary Guard and the military appear hesitant, while strikes on US bases in the Middle East have produced casualties. Watch for defections from the military and intelligence services, and whether any successor can consolidate authority. The Strait of Hormuz is the pressure point, with about 20% of global LNG and about 20% of global oil moving through that chokepoint.
The strategic fallout is Iran’s role in Russia’s sanctions evasion and drone war. Iran has helped launder money and move restricted goods, and it has supported Russia’s Shahed-derived drones tied to the Geran line, including parts Russia struggles to make. China matters because Russia depends on China far more than China depends on Russia, and Beijing avoids risk. If Iran weakens, Putin loses a key enabler and faces tighter constraints at home and on the battlefield.