About 5.6 million Ukrainians remain abroad as of January 2026, according to research by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES). The total number of refugees grew from 5.2 million in late 2024, and the study shows that instead of waiting for the war to end, many are now seeking permanent residency in host countries.
Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, millions of people have fled the country. Waves of refugee outflows continued throughout 2024 and 2025 due to ongoing power outages, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, homes and civilian infrastructure. This prolonged exodus has led to a critical labor shortage in Ukraine.
The Centre for Economic Strategy summarized the sentiments of 1,000 Ukrainians living abroad, finding that those who left are divided into groups with a variety of motivations for returning.
Refugee segmentation and return probabilities
The research shows that those who left are divided into four groups, with their motivations for returning varying significantly across different clusters.
“The analysis allowed us to identify two groups of refugees who are more likely to return – “classic war refugees” and those “with strong connections.” Other groups are more likely to remain abroad – the “new life trajectory” and “economically vulnerable” clusters,” CES states.
“Classic war refugees” typically fled due to active hostilities in their home settlements (26%) or nearby areas (27%), rather than for economic reasons, fear of mobilization, or loss of faith in Ukraine’s future.
Source: CES. Note: Four Ukrainian refugee clusters with distinct return intentions in 2026.
Nearly 80% of all refugees who are willing to return will only do so after the war ends and a document is signed authorizing the restoration of civil aviation over Ukraine.
How refugees plan to cope with the end of temporary protection
The EU’s temporary protection status for Ukrainians is set to expire in March 2027. The EU plans a managed transition either to alternative statuses that would allow some refugees to stay in the country (based on education, work, etc.).
Refugees are moving toward long-term integration abroad. CES data reveals how refugees plan to navigate the end of their legal status:
- 23% plan to return to Ukraine if temporary protection is canceled
- 47% are already prepared for life after protection. Among them, 21% have already secured alternative residency documents, and 26% plan to obtain them soon
- 27% would seek residency in another foreign country rather than return home, while 11% said they would stay in their current country even without a valid permit
According to CES calculations, after the end of the war, 1.6 million refugees will return to Ukraine in an “average” scenario. An estimated 2.7 million will remain abroad (excluding Russia and Belarus) in this scenario. In a pessimistic scenario, only 1.3 million Ukrainians will return home, and 3 million will remain abroad. The optimistic scenario assumes the return of 2.2 million Ukrainians, with only 2.1 million refugees remaining abroad.
Changing demographics: Youth outflow vs. senior returns
The survey shows a divergence in age-related trends compared to 2024. There is a decrease in the share of refugees aged 45+. CES analysts suggest this is a “clear trend” showing that older Ukrainians are the most likely to have already returned home.
The majority of Ukrainian refugees abroad are adult women – their share among refugees is 40%. The share of adult men among refugees continues to rise, reaching 29% in 2026, up from 27% a year ago and 18% in early 2024. An estimated 31% of refugees are children under 18.
In contrast, young people (under 35) now make up 56% of refugees. The number of young people abroad may be related to young men aged 18-22 having permission to leave Ukraine.
Source: CES. Note: Gender and age structure of Ukrainian refugees abroad in Jan. 2026.
Which countries do Ukrainians choose to live in?
The largest number of Ukrainian refugees currently live in Germany (23%) and Poland (19.5%).
Germany is often chosen by young people under 35, with 28% of refugees under 35 living in Germany. An estimated 20% of refugees 35 and older also live here.
Poland is more attractive for refugees aged 35-49: 24% of this age group live here. In comparison, only 15% of refugees under 35 and 18% of refugees over 49 live in this country.
A significant number of refugees live in the Czech Republic (7.5%), Canada (5.8%), the US (4.7%), Spain (4.7%), and the United Kingdom (4.4%).
Source: CES. Note: Demonstration of countries where Ukrainian refugees live in 2026.