What is now pretty clear is that we are seeing a battle for endurance and supply chains in ballistic missile, drones and anti-missile and anti-drone space as this war in Iran plays out.
Israel and the US would dearly love to undermine the Islamic Republic, through their pursuit of war, so as to set in motion regime change. But there is a real reluctance to do whatever it takes, which in the absence of a local uprising means boots on the ground. So for the US and Israel it’s about using air power and missiles to grind away at the Islamic Republic’s leadership cadres, military and military industrial capacities, plus police and means of social control – the hope on the latter is to change the calculus for any domestic opposition.
For the Islamic Republic, they must have figured out that regime change is a core desire for the US and Israel – they have said as much. It’s hence existential for the Islamic Republic and survival would be seen as a win.
But it’s going to be a battle of missile and drone stocks and supply chain endurance between the two sides. How long can the IR last out and is there a point when the US and Israel run out of missiles and, in particular, missile defense?
For Iran, its defense is to increase the cost to the US, and the global economy from the war. And I guess it’s also understanding that in terms of their ballistic missile and drone capability, their advantage lies not in long-range strikes on Israel, which is a small target set far distant and very well defended, but closer to home in the Gulf and its immediate neighbors, including Turkiye, Azerbaijan et al.
Few missiles aimed at Israel have a chance of getting through the famed Iron Dome, now augmented with the USS Ford. But by widening and disbursing the target set across Iran’s borders, it makes it much harder for the US and its allies to defend. And the Gulf offers a target-rich environment with potential for a huge impact on the global economy.
Remember, for Gulf states, it’s not just about oil and gas, but recent vision programs have seen Gulf states diversify their economies to be major global players in tourism, logistics and finance. Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports and ports are now huge global players. Much of this diversification has been funded by debt or credit. The Gulf exports not just oil and gas but also fertilizer for global agriculture and transships a range of inputs critical to global supply chains. If Iran can make the Gulf states insecure and cut transport routes for supply chains, it has the potential for huge impact on the global economy – hurting Trump with higher inflation and lower growth.
Imagine here if the war runs on, tourists and expat workers leave the Gulf – imagine the impact then on real estate, retail, construction, etc., many funded with debt. Imagine the potential there to increase credit risk and stress the banking sectors across the region. And as much of this debt has been sold globally – particularly to investors in Asia – imagine the risks for contagion.
For Iran, the Gulf states are more vulnerable to missile and drone strikes as they are closer and generally less well defended.
Iran will hope that its drone attacks can use up the Gulf states’ high-end missile defenses. Cheap drones ($20k cost) running down stocks of expensive (several million bucks) anti-missile defenses (Patriots as well). The shorter distance and lower flying drones are harder to detect, and it’s easier to use mass swarms of drones to confuse and downgrade defenses.
The first line of defense for the US and its allies is hitting drones and ballistic missiles at source – at manufacturing, storage and launch sites. But it’s easier when it comes to ballistic missiles. As for drones, they are small and light and can be manufactured in small industrial estates. Guess the aim will be to destroy supply chains – metal works, electronics factories and engine factories. But it will be hard, and given suggestions are that Iran had tens of thousands of drones in storage, and had a capacity to make hundreds a day with manufacturing and launch sites well spread across a huge country, this could take time.
Likely Iran will have substantial drone attack capacity for weeks, even months to come.
This then returns back to Gulf states anti-drone defenses. As is it appears the US and Gulf states have underdeveloped defenses against drones – hence the recent reach out to Ukraine.
Ukraine undeniably has the number one counter-drone capacity globally, developed by need and experience from the relentless attacks by Russia, often using Iranian standard Shahed drones.
Ukraine has signaled a willingness to help the US and Gulf states by sending experts and kit, but the question is what they can expect in exchange?
The Gulf states can provide finance to Ukraine – money is no object. But Ukraine is not short of funds these day given the new €90 billion EU facility.
Ukraine needs two things, though:
First, anti-ballistic missiles – so Patriots et al. Clearly, these are now in short supply. But if Ukraine is going to supply critical drone defenses to the US, the Gulf and its allies, it will want the quid pro quo of Patriots et al to counter Russian ballistic missile strikes.
The irony here, really, of WH press secretary Karoline Levitt whinging this week that Biden had given away too many Patriot et al to Ukraine, when if the US is now going to get Ukrainian anti-drone defenses it will need to supply more of those Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
The scandal here should be why the US has done little to learn from Ukraine in four years of increasingly drone warfare. I sense here that Trump’s pullback from supporting Ukraine over the past year has meant it has failed to get much input in terms of anti-drone tech. That’s on Trump, not Biden.
Other allies are also vulnerable to such claims, including the UK and Gulf states. I mean, given the threat from Iran, with an obvious Shahed drone capability, should there not have been more investment in anti-drone defenses? I assume here that it was just not imagined that Iran could attack the Gulf states. The defense had been deepening economic cooperation with Iran and trying to act as arbiters for peace talks. Ultimately, these latter defenses failed.
Second, I think Ukraine will want US and Gulf countries to put pressure on Russia in peace talks. It will also want more action from both to tighten sanctions around Russia. Obviously for Trump, this is difficult given that the attacks on Ukraine have driven global oil prices higher, increasing the importance of Russian supplies to global markets.
But the irony here – Zelensky, who was so rudely berated by Trump, Vance et al for having no cards back at the now infamous Oval Office ambush with Trump, suddenly was handed Trump cards in the form of anti-drone capability. Zelensky suddenly became the joker card, beyond his own comedic background.
Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog! See the original article here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.