Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking not only in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions but also in western Zaporizhia Oblast. These counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects that may disrupt Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive campaign plan.
- The Russian command likely hoped that Russian advances in the Hulyaipole direction would complement Russian advances near Orikhiv, which would in turn enable Russian forces to advance toward Orikhiv from the east and west and later enable advances toward Zaporizhzhia City itself.
- Russian forces are thus facing a far more difficult battlefield situation in southern Ukraine in early March than they did at the start of 2026.
- The counterattacks in southern Ukraine are also having strategic effects in other parts of the theater.
- The cascading effects that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole, and Zaporizhia directions have generated in other sectors of the front show how constrained the Russian force structure in Ukraine really is.
- Ukrainian interceptor drones and personnel with experience downing Shahed drones are helping protect US military infrastructure in the Middle East.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to support the Iranian regime while predictably taking advantage of the conflict in the Middle East to engage in energy blackmail.
- Ukrainian forces have been intensifying their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Crimea over the past month.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, near Hulyaipole, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Russia. Russian forces launched two missiles and 197 drones against Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, Odesa, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
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