Russia faces a projected $100 billion budget deficit in 2026, but the shortfall could be covered if sanctions on Russian oil are weakened, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Speaking to journalists, Zelensky said Moscow has already generated significant revenue from oil exports in recent weeks, highlighting how quickly the deficit could shrink if restrictions on energy sales are loosened.
Oil revenue could offset deficit
According to Ukrinform, Zelensky stated Russia’s projected deficit for the year stands at about $100 billion, but oil income continues to provide the Kremlin with a critical financial lifeline.
“For 2026, they had a deficit of $100 billion. This is the projected deficit. But over these 14–15 days they have earned about $10 billion,” Zelensky noted.
“So they can simply cover this deficit if the war continues. And if the sanctions policy is weakened, Russia will earn money,” he added.
The president emphasized that sanctions remain one of the few tools capable of limiting the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war.
“If there are no sanctions, then there is only Ukrainian weaponry fighting to prevent the Russians from earning money,” Zelensky concluded.
Strikes on oil sector and defense industry
Zelensky also pointed to Ukrainian strikes targeting Russia’s oil sector and defense industry as measures that have already inflicted economic damage.
“Strikes deep inside Russia, especially against the defense industry and the oil sector, have definitely worked. We understand their losses,” he stressed, while cautioning that military pressure alone cannot replace economic sanctions.
He added that Kyiv will continue urging Western partners to maintain and strengthen sanctions against Moscow.
Talks with Western partners on sanctions
Zelensky indicated the issue had recently been discussed with French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders.
“We discussed this with the president of France,” Zelensky said, noting that European countries have been working to curb Russia’s so-called shadow tanker fleet used to transport oil despite sanctions.
He also acknowledged recent efforts by US President Donald Trump to stop several Russian tankers.
“I am grateful to him. I thanked him for stopping several Russian tankers,” Zelensky said.
“But now all tankers can unload, and they will earn money,” the President added.
Zelensky warned that easing sanctions on Russia would ultimately benefit the Kremlin rather than stabilize global energy markets.
“I believe that lifting sanctions on Russia will not help the world – it will only help Russia. Perhaps some countries may find it a little easier for a very short time in terms of energy supply volumes, but everyone has been through this before. In the end, you still end up on the hook,” he said.
Zelensky pointed to Europe’s past dependence on Russian energy, recalling the political pressure and supply disruptions that accompanied it: “We remember the gas crisis, the intimidation from Russia, the accusations. But we see that Europe has become more independent.”
According to Zelensky, Ukraine and its European partners are discussing the possibility of stopping and confiscating Russian oil shipments, though such steps would require additional political decisions.
Temporary US license for Russian oil sales
The discussion comes after the US Department of the Treasury issued a license allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that had already been loaded onto ships.
The authorization permits countries to purchase Russian oil currently “stuck at sea,” with the measure set to remain in force from March 12 to April 11.
Zelensky warned that weakening restrictions on Russian oil exports risks replenishing the Kremlin’s war finances at a time when sanctions pressure remains a key element of Ukraine’s strategy to limit Moscow’s resources.