Trump’s unprovoked war against Iran appears more disastrous by the day. Trump suffers from the conundrums of not being able to think straight, lying all the time, and being blissfully ignorant. Apparently, he did not discuss this war with any ally, apart from Isarel, and did not even inform them. Wars are serious matters requiring responsibility and thinking, both appearing alien to Trump.
Scatterbrain Trump has been unable to formulate an aim of his war. According to credible Omani mediators, the Iranians were ready to accept a stricter nuclear control agreement and limit its ballistic missiles, but instead the US attacked. Now these two goals might be out of reach. The only US achievement appears to have been the destruction of most of Iran’s navy.
Initially, Trump claimed his aim was regime change, but he prefers dictatorship to democracy. He even demanded the right to appoint a new leader of Iran, but no Iranian ayatollah asked him. When Trump did not get what he wanted, he called for “unconditional surrender.” Sorry, toddler, Iran is no toy!
Instead, Trump has brought horrendous damage to his purported allies: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq and Cyprus. Not very credibly, these countries have claimed neutrality, but they all host American military bases.
Iran has seized control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, letting through friends, such as India, Turkey and Iraq, while blocking enemies. Iranian drones hitting Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have made clear that these alleged havens for are no longer safe. The Gulf states are steeling themselves for further blows: Their exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and aluminum will be blocked. They import 80% of their food through the Strait of Hormuz, but now that food is rotting onboard. About 90% of their population are expats, many of them highly volatile money launderers and tax cheats prone to run away.
This is even more true of the many tourists who have flocked to the Gulf. Dubai is the second most trafficked airport in the world. The Gulf states will suffer the ultimate disaster if Iran bombs its big desalination plants that provide them with 60% of their water. The US or Israel have already bombed an Iranian desalination plant.
If Trump does not stop his mad war instantly, global recession may follow.
I lived in Kuwait in 1977-78. At that time, Kuwait was the real capital of the Gulf, while Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai were parochial outposts, not to mention Riyadh. Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in 1990-91 was brief, but Kuwait never came back. The other Gulf states are likely to suffer the same reputational decline now as Kuwait did after Iraq’s invasion. Trump’s war on Iran will probably deprive them of their money, expats and safe-haven status for decades to come. Neither wealthy expats nor tourists go to unsafe places.
Trump did not inform any allies apart from Israel about his attack on Iran, but in two weeks it boosted the global oil price from about $60 per barrel to $103 per barrel and it is likely to stay high. Then Trump boasted about how the US would benefit from high oil prices. Oil prices are global, so for US consumers, it is of no significance that the US trade little with the Gulf. The oil supply from the Gulf determines global oil prices. As a result of higher global oil and gas prices, inflation is rising throughout the world, along with central bank interest rates. If Trump does not stop his mad war instantly, global recession may follow.
Trump has persistently insulted European countries, fought them with unjustified tariffs, warning them of “civilizational erasure,” while supporting rightwing extremists in Europe. Spain has taken the most principled position, refusing to allow the US to use its airbase in Spain for this war. France has followed suit; the French have not allowed any US bases on French territory since Charles De Gaulle. The UK has been the ally most attached to the US, but now even the UK has refused to contribute to Trump’s madness in Iran.
After having repeatedly declared that the US did not need any support from its former allies, Trump suddenly demanded that they help him to open the Strait of Hormuz. Good luck with that! France said no. The UK, Japan, South Korea and China all appear to be balking.
With its usual economic folly, the Pentagon has taken down Iranian Shahed drones costing $25,000 with US Patriot missiles worth $4-5 million. Elegantly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered the US effective Ukrainian drone interceptors costing $2,500 instead. While the US accepted it, Trump insulted Zelensky again for no other reason than his love for Putin.
The main beneficiary of Trump’s policies is Russia – as usual. Trump has taken the opportunity to stop 10 (!) US sanctions on Russian oil to facilitate Putin’s financing of his war on Ukraine. Putin’s servant Steve Witkoff has just gone on his ninth visit to Moscow after never having visited Ukraine, clarifying on whose side he and Trump stand. It is high time for Ukraine to refuse all further meetings with Trump, Witkoff and Kushner and other Putin servants.
Trump’s war against Iran is likely to appear a far greater disaster than Bush’s war on Iraq, which would be quite an achievement. Rather than desired regime change, Trump’s war on Iran has reinforced the hold on the country by the extremist theocrats, just as Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq from 1991-2003. The Gulf states (foolishly, as they all had US military bases) thought they were neutral, but now they know that US bases are a liability that they had better get rid of. Trump has seriously damaged the world economy with high energy prices, higher inflation, less growth and high interest rates. The Europeans and East Asians suffer from high oil prices, but they are simply out of it.
The Europeans need to tell Trump: Go home! My guess is that they will negotiate free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran and leave the war madness to Trump and Netanyahu.
The best Trump can do is to declare victory and go home!
This war must stop!
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.