ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction.
  • Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are forcing Russia to redeploy forces and means from other areas of the frontline and likely from operational level reserves.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continues to reject any negotiated settlement that fails to concede to all of Russia’s demands even if it concedes to Russia’s territorial demands.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued orders prohibiting Russian soldiers from using Telegram.
  • The Kremlin continues throttling Telegram domestically, setting conditions to block it completely.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, near Pokrovsk, and near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 211 drones against Ukraine, including in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts.

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