The outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran is already reshaping the Russia-Ukraine peace process. Washington’s attention is divided, oil markets are shifting in Moscow’s favor, and Kyiv must navigate negotiations that were already struggling under the weight of the Kremlin’s maximalist demands.
Nearly three weeks after the initial attacks, the question is: What impact has the US-Israel-Iran War actually had?
As expected, the US-Israel-Iran War’s effect on the Russia-Ukraine peace process has been quite profound even if not readily apparent. The primary intermediary is now embroiled in its own conflict, the consequences of which are overstretching the US negotiating team, introducing competing interests, and strengthening the Kremlin’s maximalist negotiating strategy. With the timing and location for the next round of negotiations still undecided, the Ukrainian delegates must recognize the new state-of-play if they hope to maximize outcomes for their country going forward.
An overstretched US negotiating team
The most obvious impact that the conflict in the Middle East has had is disrupting the US-mediated negotiation schedule. The Ukraine and US sides have acknowledged that two rounds of negotiations have already been delayed over the past two weeks, owing to the US special envoy team’s inability to travel and competing priorities with the US-Israel-Iran War. Such is the consequence of using the same negotiating team for complex nuclear negotiations with Iran, the Gaza peace process, and ceasefire deliberations between Russia and Ukraine.
There is still no clear indication when the next round of negotiations will take place. In fact, President Volodymyr Zelensky likened it to a whole “Santa Barbara” situation in trying to set up the next round of negotiations – a colloquial way of saying that it has become a drawn-out, messy saga like the 1980s-era soap opera.
At this point, Zelensky noted, the US team is unwilling to leave the United States, while the Russian side is unwilling to travel to the United States for the next round of negotiations. The Kremlin has offered to meet in Türkiye or Switzerland. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian team is willing to go wherever the negotiations may happen as long as the interactions remain in a third party country or the United States.
With newfound leverage, the Kremlin has even more reason to maintain its hardline strategy in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.
Oil and the Kremlin’s leverage
Along with the disruption to the mechanics of the negotiation, there have also been substantive changes in the power dynamics between Washington and Moscow. The outbreak of hostilities triggered several unintended consequences, including a spike in global oil prices amid fears of supply disruption in the Middle East. With the Donald Trump administration facing domestic criticism over the decision to start a war with Iran, the White House is seeking to avoid any impacts to global markets that could further suggest poor planning and problematic outcomes from the conflict.
The White House has already opted to allow for sanctioned Russian oil to be purchased by countries to help stabilize prices. The US Treasury Department claimed that this is not going to benefit Russia since the oil was already en route and just stranded at sea for the time being, but there are three issues here.
The first is that increasing oil prices means greater revenue for the Kremlin. The surplus funds can then be routed towards its war effort.
The second issue is that while the White House is claiming that this is a short-term measure, the war does not appear to be slowing down or stopping. Therefore, a short-term measure can easily become an expanded, long-term arrangement.
Finally, the third issue is that the Russian side will look to exploit this. It is not a coincidence that Trump and Vladimir Putin held their first phone call of 2026 last week. It is also unsurprising that while Moscow refuses to send its ceasefire negotiators to the United States for a trilateral meeting involving the Ukrainian side, Kremlin Envoy Kirill Dmitriev still traveled to Florida last week to meet with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for continued discussions on economic issues. Dmitriev has since been clear in his signaling that Russian oil is key to stabilizing the world’s gas markets.
With newfound leverage, the Kremlin has even more reason to maintain its hardline strategy in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. This means that Moscow will cling to its maximalist demands; increase the costs on Ukrainian civilians to decrease resolve; wait for the United States and Ukraine’s other partners to withdraw support; and offer economic incentives to the White House.
Navigating rough waters for Ukraine
The Zelensky administration is trying to navigate the new dynamics in the peace process. For Ukrainians who have endured four years of drone warfare, the manner in which Iran is employing its missiles and Shahed drones is unsurprising, and Kyiv has offered support to others in managing the dynamics of this type of fighting.
This is additional political ammunition for Ukraine’s supporters in Washington, who can use it as justification for bolstering US-Ukraine ties both now and into the future. Beyond the moral arguments, the military benefits that Ukraine can offer are now tangibly evident in the US’s own war.
But Trump has dismissed the importance of this support, claiming that the United States has sufficient drone assets and counter-drone equipment. In an interview this past weekend, he stated that “the last person we need help from is Zelensky.” His comments on the Russia-Ukraine peace process also imply his impatience towards reaching a deal: “I’m surprised that Zelensky doesn’t want to make a deal. Tell Zelensky to make a deal because Putin’s willing to make a deal.”
The safe bet is on the White House ramping up pressure on Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Trump made it clear that coalition building related to securing the Strait of Hormuz is a top priority for him, calling out NATO’s focus on Ukraine: “We have a thing called NATO. We’ve been very sweet. We didn’t have to help them with Ukraine… but we helped them. Now we’ll see if they help us.”
There is a real possibility that the White House links its Russia-Ukraine mediation efforts to its desire for coalition backing, withholding support unless NATO allies deliver assistance to the US war effort in the Middle East. Kyiv will need to stay in lockstep with US government interlocutors and European allies to ensure that the peace process is not held hostage by the parallel conflict.
An additional wild card here is going to be how well Ukrainian forces perform on the battlefield during the spring offensive. The more territory that Ukraine is able to liberate, the more leverage it will have in any negotiations that may eventually take place. It will be important for the Ukrainians to maximize the opportunity that exists now before the Kremlin finds ways to exploit the ongoing US-Israel-Iran War further in its favor.
The way ahead
So, where do things go from here?
The immediate questions for the three parties to answer are when and where the next trilateral negotiation will take place. The most likely answer to “where” will be Switzerland, as it is safe and neutral territory for all parties.
The “when” will remain dependent on three things: 1) whether the White House decides to hold the Russia-Ukraine peace process hostage to its Iran war interests; 2) whether the US special envoy team is able to travel; and 3) if there is an opportunity for the US delegates to engage with the Iranian delegates on the sidelines as they have done for the past with nuclear negotiations.
If the trilateral negotiations do not occur within the next week, it should be a clear indication that the US-mediated peace process will be a net negative for Kyiv until the US disengages from its ongoing conflict with Iran.
If the Russia-Ukraine-US negotiations do occur, it will be important to pay attention to what tactics the US negotiators use and how conciliatory they may be towards the Kremlin as they seek to end the Russo-Ukrainian War amidst their ongoing conflict with Iran. The safe bet is on the White House ramping up pressure on Kyiv as it seeks additional economic benefits from the Kremlin, but only time will tell.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.