ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • A senior Ukrainian military official forecasted that Russia will begin using mobilized personnel on the battlefield in Ukraine on April 1.
  • Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine continue to create operational and strategic effects against Russian forces going into the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
  • Likely Belarusian balloons recently landed in Poland, possibly as part of Russia’s ongoing use of Belarus in its “Phase Zero” effort, setting conditions for a potential future war with NATO.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
  • Ukrainian forces struck military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 139 drones against Ukraine.

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