On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iran, targeting military and nuclear-related infrastructure.
The war has since expanded into a broader regional conflict, with Iranian retaliation hitting energy infrastructure in the Gulf and disrupting shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz, with US President Donald Trump saying he is postponing threatened military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following alleged talks with Iran, which refuses to reopen the strait.
The war is effectively the continuation of the twelve-day operation launched by Israel against Iran in June 2025, which led to the bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack.
War’s goal
The stated and inferred objectives of the campaign are to degrade Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, with some officials and analysts suggesting that weakening or eliminating the Ayatollah regime is an underlying goal.
Chief parties to the war
Israel is conducting deep strikes inside Iran, aiming to degrade its missile forces, military-industrial infrastructure, and nuclear capacity. Recent reporting suggests Israel has also demonstrated extensive intelligence penetration inside Iran, including high-level targeted killings and strikes on sensitive sites such as the South Pars gas field.
The US is a direct belligerent, with its officials openly describing military objectives that include dismantling Iran’s missile infrastructure, naval capability, and military-industrial base.
Iran is responding with missile and drone strikes across the region. Its goals are regime survival, deterrence, and preservation of regional influence, but it is also using the war to impose costs on Israel’s partners by hitting Gulf energy facilities and threatening maritime traffic.
Caught in between: the Gulf states
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, collectively known as the Gulf states, have all faced attacks or severe energy-market fallout as a result of the war.
Qatar didn’t have the bad relationships that the Saudis and the Emiratis had with Iran. But now it’s completely soured.
They are not politically unified. Saudi Arabia and the UAE generally view Iran as their principal regional rival. Qatar maintains working ties with Tehran, in part because the two share the South Pars/North Dome gas field. Kuwait and Oman have traditionally occupied a more mediating position. Their common denominator is economic survival, not ideology.
Dr. Omar Ashour, Professor of Security and Military Studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies (Qatar) and University of Exeter (United Kingdom), told Kyiv Post:
“Qatar didn’t have the bad relationships that the Saudis and the Emiratis had with Iran. But now it’s completely soured. In the first salvo, Qatar detected 145 threats, including three cruise missiles, about 101 ballistic missiles, and 29 drones; they also downed two SU-24 aircraft.”
The Gulf States also host US military bases:
- Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar): The largest US military base in the Middle East and a central hub for air operations and command coordination.
- Naval Support Activity Bahrain (Bahrain): Headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet, responsible for securing the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
- Camp Arifjan (Kuwait): A major logistics and ground operations center supporting US forces in the region.
- Al Dhafra Air Base (United Arab Emirates): Hosts advanced US aircraft and plays a key role in surveillance and strike operations.
Iran has long viewed these bases as legitimate targets in the event of escalation.
Interested parties: Russia and Ukraine
An established partner of Moscow, Iran effectively joined the Russo-Ukraine war in 2022 by supplying Russia with homegrown Shahed drones.
In 2025, it formalized its growing alignment with the 2025 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, a 20-year agreement covering defense, intelligence, energy, and cooperation on sanctions evasion. This assistance prompted Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to dub Iran the enemy of Ukraine, though he fell short of cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran.
While Russia has reportedly provided Iran with battlefield know-how and potentially satellite data and targeting intelligence, Ukraine has received collaboration requests from Israel and the Gulf States on how to take down the Shahed drones without using strategic missiles and Ukraine has deployed its experts.
Legality of the war
While controversial, US President Donald Trump’s move to bypass Congress’s approval to launch the strikes fits a longer pattern in which US presidents have used military force without a formal declaration of war. Examples include Bill Clinton’s 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia and Barack Obama’s 2011 Libya intervention.
Why the war is happening
Since 1948, the central geopolitical fault line in the Middle East has revolved around Israel’s establishment, the displacement and partition of Palestinian territory, and the refusal of several regional states and movements to accept Israel’s legitimacy.
Recognize Israel:
Egypt
Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Morocco
Do not recognize Israel:
Iran
Lebanon
Syria
Iraq
Kuwait
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Iran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi had working ties with Israel. In 1979, the administration of US President Jimmy Carter distanced itself from the Shah, contributing to the conditions that enabled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to come to power following the revolution.
Today, Iran does not recognize Israel and presents itself as the leading state backer of armed resistance to it through proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. On Oct. 7, 2023, just weeks before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Jerusalem was on the verge of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, Hamas launched an incursion into Israel, triggering a war with Hezbollah and a war in Gaza.
Iran maintains that its uranium enrichment program is civilian in nature and lawful under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, emphasizing its right to develop nuclear energy for electricity and medical use. However, since the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, Tehran has steadily increased both the level and scale of its enrichment activities, reaching up to 60% purity, which is far above civilian requirements and technically close to weapons-grade levels of around 90%.
In recent years, Iran has faced repeated waves of protests driven by economic hardship, political repression, and social restrictions – most notably the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement. More recent demonstrations in 2024-2026, fueled by inflation, currency collapse, and anger over corruption and governance failures, have continued to expose deep dissatisfaction with the clerical regime.
Key Region’s Energy Infrastructure
The region is home to swathes of natural resources, foremost oil and gas reserves.
Kharg Island
Iran’s most important oil export terminal, handling the majority of the country’s crude shipments to global markets. Located in the Persian Gulf, it serves as a critical hub linking Iran’s vast oil fields to international buyers, making it a high-value strategic target in any regional conflict.
Iran’s South Pars gas field
It is part of the shared South Pars/North Dome Gas Field with Qatar – as well as major offshore and onshore oil fields across the Gulf.
Hormuz strait
Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ras Laffan node
It is a critical global energy node, accounting for approximately 18-20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown has caused a significant jump in European gas prices, with experts warning of potential long-term shortages if the disruption lasts, particularly as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is heavily constrained.
Early outcomes:
Elimination of key Iranian regime figures
Political leadership
Ali Khamenei — Supreme Leader of Iran
Ali Larijani — Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council
Intelligence and security leadership
Esmaeil Khatib — Minister of Intelligence
Ali Shamkhani — Senior security adviser and key nuclear policy figure
Military leadership (top command)
Mohammad Pakpour — Commander of the IRGC
Abdolrahim Mousavi — Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces
Aziz Nasirzadeh — Minister of Defense
Oil price spike
Since the launch of the campaign, oil prices have increased from roughly $60 to $100 per barrel, to a peak of nearly $120 per barrel before easing. Similar spikes have taken place after the start of most wars, including Russia’s full-scale
With Russia’s weakened state, I don’t see how they benefit, unless hypocritical European nations decide to quietly buy their supply again.
American energy expert Gabriella Hoffman for Kyiv Post: “Oil fluctuations in the short-term are concerning, but Operation Epic Fury is very different than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices haven’t risen to $5/gal in the US. The US has increased domestic production of oil and gas and other reliable forms of energy, so we might stave off price increases. With Russia’s weakened state, I don’t see how they benefit, unless hypocritical European nations decide to quietly buy their supply again. Still, I believe Secretary Scott Bessent’s energy sanctions against Russia should be left in place.”
Hormuz Strait blockade
Iran has threatened to strike any ship that travels through the Strait that isn’t carrying Iranian oil, with some limited exceptions. The Trump administration has offered to escort ships through the strait and has encouraged other NATO allies to join the effort. So far, other countries have declined and the US hasn’t escorted any ships through the strait since the war began.
Claimed outputs
US President Donald Trump has claimed that strikes on Kharg Island significantly degraded Iran’s ability to export oil, describing the facility as a “critical choke point” in Tehran’s economy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the campaign as a major strategic success, arguing that Israel has set back Iran’s nuclear program and weakened its military leadership through targeted strikes.
Final outcomes
Have yet to be determined
Impact on Ukraine and Russia
Iran’s war impact on Ukraine and Russia should be viewed through the lens of short-term and long-term goals.
Short-term
Russia gains a tactical advantage as Western attention and some resources shift toward the Middle East; it benefits from higher energy prices; it continues to profit from Iran-related military cooperation.
Ukraine faces the risk of reduced Western focus, tougher competition for air defenses and munitions, and a noisier diplomatic environment; it also has an opening for greater military collaboration with Israel and the Gulf states.
Long-term
Russia risks losing a key strategic military partner if Iran is weakened over time, which would reduce Russia’s access to Iranian systems and narrow its strategic options.
If we take down the regime, Russia will lose its leverage, and Israel will likely have fewer constraints.
Ukraine could benefit from the weakening of the Iran-Russia axis and from deeper long-term military cooperation with Israel and the Gulf states, especially on air defense and counter-drone capabilities.
Amir Weitmann of Israel’s ruling party Likud for Kyiv Post: “I’m not happy with the behavior of the Israeli government toward Ukraine. But Netanyahu has been cautious because he perceives Russia as a significant player in Iran. If we take down the regime, Russia will lose its leverage, and Israel will likely have less restraint.”
Three developments to watch out for
The war is likely to continue for several weeks, with the Gulf countries, except for Oman, now reportedly pushing to ensure that Iran comes out of this war with its military power sufficiently degraded to cease posing a threat to them, according to Times of Israel reports.
1. The most immediate danger remains a direct Iran–US war. With both sides already striking each other’s territory and assets, a single major escalation could rapidly widen the conflict. This is, however, becoming the less likely scenario given that the U.S. and Iran are now, reportedly, engaged in direct negotiations, which led to the sharp oil futures price decline: from roughly $98 to $90 on March 23 (press-time).
2. The most globally significant threat remains the collapse of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows. Prolonged disruption could drive sustained price spikes and push the global economy toward recession. It could lead to a serious deficit of key fossil fuels that Ukraine’s key military and economic partner, the European Union, relies on as well.
3. The local risk is a full-scale Israel–Hezbollah war. Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah has a far larger arsenal and could open a northern front that significantly expands the battlefield.
Bonus point: China
While positioning itself as the ally of Iran and Russia, China has avoided direct involvement in the conflict.
As the world’s largest importer of Gulf energy, it has a strong interest in keeping shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, open and stable. Beijing’s strategy is to preserve its economic ties with both Iran and the Gulf states while positioning itself as a potential diplomatic broker, benefiting from stability without bearing the costs of intervention.