This really should be an easy decision – enable and empower Kyiv to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
But defeating Russia in Ukraine apparently does not hold the same weight as destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone, uranium enrichment, and nuclear weapons programs, their military, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their Basij paramilitary force.
The end state is tied to economics in Ukraine.
It is getting that way in the Middle East too, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains stagnant with Operation Epic Fury entering its fourth week.
As James Carville stated in 1992 during Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign, “It’s the economy stupid.”
Still is at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Vice President JD Vance made that abundantly clear last week when he told reporters, “So, there’s been a lot of debate about what exactly our foreign policy should be with regards to Russia and Ukraine. The president of the United States has been very clear. He wants the killing to stop. He wants to get back to commerce.”
For Washington, this is simple math. The war ends when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky relinquishes the Donbas – then the White House can secure “economic opportunities” with Moscow worth up to $14 trillion.
But that “portfolio of potential US-Russia projects” is contingent on a peace agreement in Ukraine and the lifting of Western sanctions. Something Team Trump has been unable to secure – prompting the President to lash out at Zelensky repeatedly. Most recently on March 14, telling NBC News that “Zelensky is far more difficult to make a deal with [than Russian President Vladimir Putin].”
As he should be. This is about Ukraine’s survival and the security of NATO’s eastern flank, not about Washington’s pocketbook.
But for US negotiators in Florida last weekend, it was more of the same – applying pressure on Ukraine to give Russia what they cannot achieve on the battlefield.
Ukraine continues to say no despite its concern that the US could withdraw from negotiations to focus on their Islamic Republic of Iran problem.
But what Team Trump does not seem to comprehend is that the Donbas is just the “next” obstacle erected by Russia to achieve its end state: the total annihilation of Ukraine.
The US can enable Kyiv to defeat Russia in Ukraine and deliver decisive blows to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The two are inevitably connected.
The remaining obstacles include Russia’s demand for presidential elections and its “approval” of security guarantees – most notably, the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine at the conclusion of the war.
Russia knows it cannot win this war with Zelensky in power; therefore, they have fallen back on their illegitimate government excuse. Their solution is an election – now – to install a pro-Kremlin government. This unresolvable challenge – an election while actively fighting a war defending their country, coupled with known Russian election interference (i.e. Moldova, Georgia, Romania, the US and now Hungary) – is a clear nonstarter, yet one that Trump “trumpets.”
On March 6, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was quite clear when he said Russia saw no possibility for a compromise on the issue of deploying European military contingents in Ukraine. “We will regard the presence of these troops on Ukrainian territory the same way we would the potential presence of NATO in Ukraine. No matter what flags this operation is carried out under… it will still be NATO troops.”
Why the push back?
The presence of NATO troops would block Russia’s path to Kyiv. If they were stationed inside Ukraine, they are prepared to defend alongside Ukraine, and Russia wants to avoid a conflict with NATO. On the other hand, if they are on the opposite side of the border, European leaders would likely respond too late to prevent Russia from seizing Kyiv.
Missing in the negotiations this weekend were the changes taking place on the battlefields in Ukraine – and Russia. Momentum is shifting back towards Ukraine.
Russia’s Spring offensive was preempted by an Ukrainian offensive that reclaimed over 400 square kilometers – liberating most of the Dnipropetrovsk region and halting Russian advances toward Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine has once again varied its tactics – transitioning into a network-centric warfare model utilizing their drones – taking advantage of Russia’s inability to access Starlink, isolating and destroying Russian forces in Ukraine, and cutting off their means of supply and reinforcement.
What spring offensive the Kremlin was able to generate over the past week (March 17-24) resulted in over 9,810 casualties.
From a strategic standpoint, efforts remain focused on undermining Russia’s capacity to finance the war.
On Monday Ukraine targeted the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk near St. Petersburg – considered Russia’s biggest oil port – which exports more than 1 million barrels of oil per day – that also “serves as a base for Russia’s secretive ‘shadow ships’ network.”
On Tuesday they struck the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga in the northwestern Leningrad Oblast, a port that handles around “700,000 barrels of oil exports per day.”
On Wednesday, they struck again in Leningrad Oblast, hitting Russia’s second-largest refinery by processing capacity.
These deep strikes led Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to correctly conclude, “Not a single region of Russia can feel safe.”
Ukraine is getting the job done with minimal US support. They are producing their own weapons – the Fire Point (FP)-2 deep strike drone, FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile and the FP-7 ballistic missile – and munitions that can be fired from the US Patriot missile system and HIMARS, and providing counter-drone support to Europe and Gulf State countries.
The US can enable Kyiv to defeat Russia in Ukraine and deliver decisive blows to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The two are inevitably connected. Together, they contribute directly to instability throughout the world.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Copyright 2026. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.