Several EU officials told Reuters they would welcome Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s exit after April’s elections – but remain skeptical that Budapest would shift on key issues where it often clashes with the bloc.
Orbán’s Fidesz party is running up against the opposition Tisza Party on April 12, with Tisza leading in the polls and the gap widening.
Orbán has maintained ties with the Kremlin – including the alleged sharing of sensitive EU intelligence with Moscow – repeatedly clashing with the bloc while arguing Russian oil remains vital to Hungary’s economy despite its push for alternatives.
“I think everybody hopes Orbán will lose,” an unnamed EU diplomat told Reuters.
Another diplomat said Orbán’s recent decision to veto a vital €90 billion ($104 billion) financial package for Kyiv at the last minute was “the last straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“On our side, the hope to talk reason into Orbán is gone,” the diplomat told Reuters.
However, some officials also said the EU is preparing to sideline Budapest to cope with its constant vetoes should Orbán remain in power after April.
“If Orbán stays, we will have to change how we work,” an unnamed European official told Reuters.
“It seems that ‘more of the same’ is no longer an option for most EU countries,” former Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins added.
“Very few illusions” about the opposition leader
While Tisza’s leader, Peter Magyar, had vowed to bring Budapest closer back to the EU and NATO in November, many European officials told Reuters they are skeptical of major shifts from Budapest.
“I have very few illusions about Magyar’s worldview. We should be careful not to expect too much,” a third EU diplomat said. “The difference will be more in tone of voice than substance.”
“Magyar is from the same political family [as Orbán], nobody is expecting a revolution,” a fourth diplomat added.
Vera Jourova, a former deputy head of the European Commission, viewed Magyar’s potential victory with cautious optimism by saying it might “renew the chance of unity on basic security matters.”
On the subject of Ukraine, Magyar has previously said that he – like Orbán – is against Kyiv’s rapid accession to the EU. His adviser later confirmed this in comments to Reuters.
“But the difference,” the person added, “is that Orbán used this to blackmail [the EU] and represent the Russian interest. We will represent the Hungarian interest.”