Ukraine plans to produce 1.3 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 26.3% decrease from last season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
In its survey published on Friday, the UCAB said farmers reduced sowing areas to 199,000 hectares, down 21.6%, due to EU trade restrictions and difficulties in accessing third markets.
These changes follow the reinstatement of EU tariff rate quotas in 2025, which replaced the full trade liberalization measures (ATM) introduced after Russia launched its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The favorable weather conditions pushed sugar beet yields slightly higher, to 49.3 tons per hectare, up 2% from last season and 4.4% above the 5-year average.
Sugar exports are expected to fall to 505,000 tons in 2025/26, down from 629,000 tons previously, the UCAB said. The group noted a shift in markets, with the EU’s share dropping to 17% in 2024/25, while Africa and the Middle East accounted for 32% and 29% of shipments, respectively.
Domestic sugar consumption is projected to fall from 1.1 million tons pre-2022 to 0.9 million tons in 2025/26. Still, high yields and 620,000 tons of carryover stocks should meet local demand, enabling continued exports to traditional markets, the UCAB said.
From record exports to pressure from the EU market
The current downturn follows a 27-year high in 2024, when Ukrainian sugar exports reached their largest volume since 1997, generating $419 million. The record was fueled by high global sugar prices – averaging €510 ($590) per ton – and the steady operation of Ukraine’s seaports.
However, the export trend shifted after trade preferences expired. While the EU absorbed 77% of Ukraine’s sugar exports in early 2023, that figure plummeted to 17% in the 2024/25 marketing year. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that sugar demand in Europe is declining due to changing consumer behavior, limiting market opportunities for Ukrainian producers.
European sugar producers also face a collapse in profitability as global prices have plunged 38% since late 2023. In a joint statement, the European Association of Sugar Manufacturers (CEFS) and the International Confederation of European Beet Growers (CIBE) urged the EU to suspend raw sugar imports and protect local producers from price dumping.
The associations blame the crisis on a global surplus from Brazil, India and Thailand, which pushed down world prices. Producers are concerned that some companies are circumventing trade rules by importing cheap raw sugar from Brazil for processing within the EU.
Consequently, many EU growers plan to cut sowing areas for the 2026/27 season, viewing new import quotas for Ukraine and potential trade deals with Mercosur, the South American trade bloc, as unsustainable pressures. Farmers fear a free trade deal would flood the market with low-cost imports from Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer.