April 11 marks the expiration of the US waiver on Russian oil sanctions, a temporary measure launched to steady energy markets during the Iran war and global supply shocks.
The measure was presented as a short-term step to calm prices after US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a broader Middle East crisis.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver would not deliver significant financial benefits to the Russian government.
Russia has arguably been among the biggest indirect beneficiaries of the conflict, as Moscow is getting exactly what it wants: more revenue, less pressure, and a more distracted West.
The financial benefit has been substantial. According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Russia has been earning about €510 million ($588 million) a day from oil and LNG exports, with daily oil-sale revenue during the Iran war averaging 14% above February levels.
Unless renewed, the waiver will lapse on April 11, potentially tightening restrictions on Russian oil flows.
On Wednesday morning, after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and Iran’s confirmation that it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plunged. But the ceasefire quickly showed signs of strain, and there is still no clear prospect of a full reopening of Hormuz.
That uncertainty raises the possibility that the US may opt for some form of extension or replacement rather than an abrupt cutoff. As of Wednesday, the US administration had not commented on its next steps.
April 11 and crucial talks
As the easing of sanctions on Russian oil nears expiry, US negotiators are also expected to meet Iranian representatives in the first publicly announced talks since the Middle East conflict began five weeks ago.
A new round of US-Iran talks is expected to begin in Islamabad on Saturday under Pakistani mediation. The US team is expected to be led by Vice President JD Vance and include special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Witkoff and Kushner are also central figures on the Russia-Ukraine track. Both men could travel to Kyiv later this month as part of efforts to revive stalled peace diplomacy after the Iran war disrupted earlier momentum.
If the Iran ceasefire holds, there is hope that the same US team may be able to redirect more diplomatic bandwidth toward Russia-Ukraine talks, including ceasefire efforts that have been pushed to the sidelines. The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it welcomed the Iran truce and hoped Washington would now resume trilateral peace talks on Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky also said the de-escalation could create space for diplomacy and reiterated that Kyiv was ready for a ceasefire if Russia halted its attacks.
Trump tariff threat could widen pressure
Another layer of uncertainty emerged on Wednesday, when US President Donald Trump warned that any country supplying military weapons to Iran would face immediate 50% US tariffs on goods sold into the American market.
Trump did not name any countries, so it remains unclear who exactly the threat was aimed at. But Russia could come into focus, given its close strategic ties with Tehran and its reported support for Iran during the conflict.
Sanctions relief for Russia
The Russia sanctions relief policy has already drawn criticism from Ukraine and European partners, who argue that any easing of pressure on Russian energy exports risks strengthening the Kremlin at a time when Moscow is still waging war against Ukraine.
Former US ambassador to Kyiv Steven Pifer told Kyiv Post in March that there had been no significant movement from Moscow. In his view, the demands voiced by Russian officials this year are essentially the same as those put forward by President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2024.
“And so, I don’t see these negotiations producing real movement towards actually ending the war in a way that might produce a just, enduring peace,” Pifer said.
That, he argued, is exactly why Washington should do the opposite of easing pressure on Russia.