Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally.
- An open-source analysis of Russian contract recruitment reports that Russian recruitment continues to decline as battlefield casualties rise, consistent with other indicators of Russian recruiting and manpower challenges that ISW has observed.
- Russian and Ukrainian officials issued competing Orthodox Easter ceasefire violation accusations, demonstrating the challenges of implementing a sustainable ceasefire without clearly defined terms, monitoring mechanisms, and dispute resolution mechanisms.
- Kremlin officials may be continuing to set rhetorical conditions to engage in operations in the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.
- Ukrainian forces may have continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 98 drones against Ukraine.
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