The United Nations warned Tuesday, April 14, that a prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food crisis, driving up prices and cutting supplies of key agricultural inputs.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said delays in shipments of fertilizers and energy could lead to lower crop yields and rising food inflation worldwide.
Risk of global agrifood crisis
Between 20% and 45% of global trade in key agricultural inputs passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the route critical for global food production, the FAO said.
“If we don’t accelerate…the risks will exacerbate,” FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said, warning that the situation could escalate into a “global agrifood catastrophe.”
Prices, yields at risk
The agency warned that farmers facing shortages of fertilizers and energy may reduce production, leading to lower yields later this year and into 2027.
This could result in higher global food prices and sustained food inflation over the coming years.
“The last thing we want is lower crop yields and higher commodity prices,” Torero said.
Policy mistakes could worsen crisis
The FAO urged governments to avoid export restrictions on fertilizers and energy, warning that such measures worsened food crises in the past.
It also called on countries to reconsider biofuel policies, which could divert resources away from food production amid rising energy prices.
Pressure rising in coming months
While global food prices remained relatively stable in March, pressure is expected to increase in April and May as farmers make planting decisions based on input availability.
Experts warned that disruptions now could have cascading effects across global markets, similar to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Call for urgent action
The FAO called for urgent international coordination, including financial support for countries at risk of losing access to fertilizers.
Multilateral tools such as the International Monetary Fund’s financing facilities could help countries secure critical inputs without triggering market distortions, the agency said.
“The clock is ticking,” Torero warned, adding that governments must act quickly to prevent the crisis from escalating.
On April 11, Reuters reported that the escalating war between the US, Israel, and Iran is driving a sharp increase in global prices for diesel and fertilizers, threatening to significantly undermine Ukraine’s agricultural production and export capacity.
The disruption in energy markets serves as an economic windfall for Russia. As a significant oil and gas producer, Moscow benefits from high global prices while providing its own farmers with cheap, domestic reserves of fuel and fertilizers. This energy crisis coincides with a difficult marketing year for Kyiv. Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season – a 25% decline compared to the previous year. While some analysts hope that rising global prices might offset the burden of high stocks, the increasing cost of inputs is making it harder for Ukrainian producers to remain competitive against Russian and EU counterparts.
Despite the wartime challenges and market consolidation – exemplified by Kernel’s recent $350 million acquisition of Enselco Holding – the survival of smaller and medium-sized farms now hinges on whether Middle Eastern tensions subside before the autumn harvest.