Russia appears to be gearing up for another test of its troubled “Sarmat” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), according to aviation warnings and satellite-range restrictions that point to preparations around the symbolic May 9 Victory Day period.
The missile – touted by President Vladimir Putin as a cornerstone of Russia’s next-generation nuclear arsenal – has reportedly suffered repeated setbacks, including failed launches and explosions during testing phases in 2024-25.
Test zones closed across Arctic and southern Russia
On May 6, authorities in Russia’s Kamchatka region warned of upcoming missile activity at the Kura test range and banned any civilian presence or movement in the area.
A day later, Russia issued aviation advisories known as Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs), urging aircraft to avoid multiple restricted zones. These included areas in the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, regions near the Kura range, and the Dombarovsky Strategic Missile Forces base in the Orenburg region.
Analysts, cited by The Moscow Times, say the pattern of closures strongly resembles preparations for a long-range missile test.
“There are several NOTAMs at Kura, matching this one and also expected SARMAT test from Dombarovskiy, with partly overlapping time-frames,” said Thord Are Iversen, an independent defense analyst.
French defense analyst Etienne Marcuz of the Foundation for Strategic Research added that the timing may be politically significant, with a launch window reportedly open between May 8 and May 11.
“The launch could occur just before or during May 9, a highly symbolic date in Russia marking Victory Day,” he said.
Symbolism over success?
The suspected test preparations come as Russia faces increasing scrutiny over the missile’s troubled development.
Marcuz and other experts say recent Sarmat trials have ended in early-stage failures – including one reported launch in which the missile crashed shortly after lift-off, leaving a large impact crater and visible atmospheric discoloration.
In another incident in 2024, the system reportedly exploded inside its silo during testing at the Plesetsk facility.
Despite more than a decade of development, Sarmat has yet to enter operational service, despite earlier Kremlin promises that it would be deployed by 2020.
The setbacks come at a politically sensitive moment, as Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russian territory with drones, forcing Moscow to scale back or cancel some traditional military displays.
Marcuz suggested that the Kremlin may be seeking to project strength through high-profile weapons testing rather than large public parades.
A successor that hasn’t arrived
Sarmat was designed to replace the Soviet-era R-36M2 “Voyevoda” missiles – known in NATO classification as “Satan” – which have formed the backbone of Russia’s heavy nuclear deterrent since the Cold War.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia still operates only a limited number of these aging systems, some of which date back to the late 1980s.
The delay in replacing them raises questions about the long-term reliability of Russia’s land-based nuclear deterrent, analysts say.
Russia’s strategic missile forces are estimated to include roughly 333 land-based intercontinental missiles, with the majority being newer “Yars” systems capable of carrying multiple warheads.
Older “Topol” missiles, several dozen remaining “Voyevoda” systems, and newer “Avangard” hypersonic units also form part of the arsenal. In addition, Russia maintains submarine-launched ballistic missiles as part of its nuclear triad.