Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (about 105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign.
- Russian forces likely do not maintain positions in Kupyansk after struggling for months to support a small and isolated group of servicemembers that infiltrated into the city.
- Ukraine and Russia agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 for the May 9 Victory Day parade and a prisoner of war exchange.
- Russia continued to threaten retaliatory strikes against Kyiv City ahead of the May 9 to 11 ceasefire announcement.
- A senior Kremlin official explicitly stated that the Kremlin demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast as a precondition for a ceasefire – a battlefield objective that Russian forces have thus far failed to achieve.
- Russian forces are performing worse on the battlefield in Spring 2026 than when the Kremlin emphasized its demand for Donetsk Oblast in 2025.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction and in the Hulyaipole direction.
- Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense, oil, and transportation infrastructure. Russian forces launched 67 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
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