ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike against Ukraine with 546 drones and missiles, including 14 ballistic missiles, on the night of May 17 to 18.  
  • Ukraine’s new domestically produced guided glide bomb will likely allow Ukrainian forces to expand their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Russian forces and assets in the near and operational rear.  
  • The Russian economy continues to feel the strain of the compounding effects of over four years of war coupled with Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
  • Russian sources suggested that Colonel General Alexander Lapin may become the next Russian State Duma Defense Committee chairperson.
  • The possible replacement of Kartapolov with Lapin, if confirmed, would be a continuation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s practice of rotating high-ranking commanders into other positions despite their poor battlefield performance.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

See the original here.