A Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile likely malfunctioned and crashed in occupied Donetsk region during Russia’s large-scale assault on Ukraine on May 23-24, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Tuesday, May 26.
According to ISW, Ukrainian open-source intelligence analysts reported that footage from May 24 appears to show Russia launching a second Oreshnik missile that later malfunctioned and hit in the occupied Donetsk region.
The footage reportedly showed six submunitions hitting the ground.
One Ukrainian OSINT source cited by ISW suggested the missile may have hit Russian military positions near occupied Avdiivka or Yasynuvata, both located roughly 40 kilometers from the front line.
“If confirmed, these reports would indicate that one of every four Oreshniks that Russian forces have used thus far in the war have malfunctioned,” ISW said.
Russia’s strike package may have cost over $400 million
ISW also cited estimates from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry news agency ArmyInform, which said Russia’s May 23-24 aerial assault package cost approximately $361 million.
According to the estimate, a single Oreshnik missile alone costs around $50 million.
If Russia indeed launched a second Oreshnik missile during the attack, the total cost of the strike packages would rise to approximately $411 million, ISW said.
Russia launched one of its largest combined missile and drone attack waves against Ukraine over the weekend, targeting multiple regions across the country.
On May 24, Russia launched 600 drones and 90 missiles in the assault, including an Oreshnik. This is the third time Russia has used the weapon against Ukraine, which struck Bila Tserkva, roughly 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Kyiv. At least four people were killed, and nearly 100 were injured across the country.
Damage was recorded in 50 locations across Kyiv, including residential buildings, schools, markets and a post office near Independence Square. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry building was also hit, along with the National Art Museum, the Kyiv Opera House, and the Chornobyl Museum.