European officials are increasingly concerned that Russia could expand the war beyond Ukraine, as threats toward NATO members escalate, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.
According to the WSJ report on Tuesday, Moscow has intensified rhetoric against Baltic states while continuing large-scale strikes on Kyiv and conducting military exercises, including nuclear drills with Belarus.
Russian officials have threatened Latvia over claims that Ukrainian drone operators are using its territory, which Riga denies.
Lithuania last week activated air raid alerts after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus.
Russia’s defense ministry has also published addresses of companies in several European countries allegedly linked to Ukrainian drone production, warning of possible escalation if military support for Kyiv continues.
Concerns over possible NATO test
European intelligence and security officials told the WSJ that Russia may attempt to test NATO’s response by targeting areas such as the Baltic states or locations in the Baltic Sea or Arctic region.
“The security environment in Europe has deteriorated during the last 24 months,” Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said.
He added that Russia is showing a greater willingness to take risks, including hybrid and potentially kinetic actions.
Jonson’s statements echoed those of Swedish Chief of Defense Michael Claesson in April, when Claesson said Russia could test NATO’s resolve by seizing a small Baltic island “at any time.”
Officials are particularly concerned that Russia could exploit any reduction in US military commitments to Europe or growing political and economic pressures within European countries.
“We know that Russia’s aim is to threaten the whole European security architecture,” French Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad said.
NATO is reportedly drawing up a rapid troop deployment plan to defend the Baltics in the event of a Russian invasion, according to Reuters on Tuesday.
Fears of escalation as losses mount
Western intelligence estimates cited by the report suggest Russia is losing around 35,000 troops per month, exceeding its current recruitment levels.
The figure is similar to Kyiv’s estimate, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying in mid-May that Russia has lost 145,000 troops since the start of 2026.
Officials warn that Moscow could resort to another wave of mobilization or escalate the conflict to justify additional measures.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said such a situation could become “very dangerous.”
“There comes the point where they need to escalate in order to justify the mobilization,” she added.
Recent signs of expanding mobilization in Russia include a reported surge in “mobilization orders” issued to reservists, alongside the Kremlin’s proposal to write off loans for newly enlisted contract soldiers, according to Russian media reports.
Zelensky said in March that Russia plans to mobilize 400,000 more troops to replenish the losses.
Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa said Russia’s broader objectives remain unchanged.
“Russia may be changing its tactics, but it hasn’t changed its strategy and its goals, and it won’t stop by itself,” she said.
European officials also cautioned that Russia’s experience with drone warfare could pose wider risks if the conflict expands.