A “big conversation” is likely underway in Washington over whether to let Ukraine produce Patriot missile interceptors, as officials “do their homework” on the risk of the technology falling into Russian hands, a leading analyst told TVP World.
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think-tank, said security concerns appeared to be at the heart of Washington’s deliberations after President Donald Trump backed away from an earlier pledge to grant Kyiv a production license.
“I’m guessing that there’s a big conversation going on between the US government and Lockheed [Martin], the producers,” Kupchan told TVP World.
“A lot of it has to do with the safety of sharing this technology [and] concerns about the potential theft of this high-end capability by the Russians.
“But I do think that the CIA and others are doing their homework on whether this technology, if given to Ukraine, would be secure.”
Trump initially suggested Ukraine could be allowed to produce Patriot interceptors, but later cast doubt on the proposal, saying the United States had to be careful about transferring sensitive military technology.
Competition fears dismissed
Kupchan rejected claims that US manufacturers were reluctant to allow Ukrainian production because they feared Kyiv could make Patriot interceptors faster and more cheaply.
“No, that doesn’t really ring true to me,” he said.
He pointed out that Germany and Japan had already been licensed to produce Patriot interceptors and said the more likely concern was whether the technology could be kept secure in Ukraine.
Kupchan cautioned that even if Washington ultimately approved a production license, it would not solve Ukraine’s immediate shortage of air-defense interceptors.
“It takes a long time to transfer this technology. It takes a long time to produce the technology once you have it,” he said.
“So this is not a magic bullet. It’s not a quick fix for Ukraine.”
Other options
He said cooperation between Germany and Poland on joint production could provide a “plausible pathway” over the longer term, but stressed that Kyiv needed an immediate solution.
“Ballistic missiles are coming into Ukraine now every night. They need a near-term fix,” Kupchan said.
“There are other options. There are French missiles... And the Ukrainians themselves are trying to generate the technology to create their own missile defense system.”
He added: “It’s a tough technology. It’s an uphill battle, but everybody is working on it.”