US President Donald Trump has backed away from plans to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles under license, raising new doubts over Kyiv’s ability to strengthen its ballistic missile defenses before Russia’s expected winter campaign, The Telegraph reported.
According to the magazine on Tuesday, the dispute centers on the Patriot’s highly sensitive Ka-band Active Radar Seeker, a small radar component that guides the interceptor toward incoming ballistic and cruise missiles during the final stage of flight.
Trump initially said in July that the US would license Patriot production to Ukraine, but later reversed course, citing concerns over transferring sensitive military technology.
“It’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology ... People that you give that technology, they can some day turn on you,” Trump said.
Why the Patriot radar is so important
The Ka-band radar seeker, produced by Boeing in Huntsville, Alabama, acts as the Patriot interceptor’s final guidance system.
The component is housed inside the missile’s nose, which is around 10 inches in diameter, with the radar itself estimated to be about eight inches wide.
When the interceptor approaches its target, the radar allows it to locate and track fast-moving ballistic or cruise missiles and guide the Patriot into a direct collision.
The technology is tightly controlled by Washington. Although around 20 countries operate Patriot systems, Germany and Japan are the only countries currently licensed to manufacture their own missiles, according to The Telegraph.
Even Japan, which received a production license in 2005, was not permitted to manufacture the highly sensitive Ka-band radar seeker.
Ukraine needs hundreds of interceptors
The licensing dispute comes as Ukraine faces an urgent shortage of Patriot interceptors ahead of another expected winter campaign of Russian missile and drone attacks.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought around 300 Patriot missiles to strengthen the country’s defenses.
Ukraine’s need is particularly acute because Patriot remains the only system in its arsenal capable of intercepting some of Russia’s ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
During a Russian attack in early August, Ukrainian air defenses reportedly failed to intercept any of the 24 ballistic missiles launched at the Kyiv region, according to The Telegraph.
“Every anti-ballistic missile package saves the lives of our people. And every night that we lack them results in casualties,” Zelensky said.
Production could take years
Even if Washington approves licensed production, Ukraine would not be able to start manufacturing Patriots quickly.
The US would have to approve the transfer of technical drawings, software, and manufacturing expertise while also certifying a new network of suppliers and production facilities.
Michael Cadenazzi, the US assistant secretary of defense for industrial policy, said the process would require finding and certifying new suppliers.
“There’s only so many engineers that know how to do this stuff. There’s only so many qualified parts [already available],” he said.
Japan took around three years to successfully test its first domestically produced PAC-3 missile after receiving the necessary license, as per The Telegraph.
Washington fears technology could reach Russia
A major concern behind the US hesitation is the possibility that sensitive Patriot technology could be obtained by Russia.
Licensing production would require Washington to determine which Ukrainian factories, employees and subcontractors could access the technology and establish safeguards against espionage or unauthorized transfer.
Retired US General Philip Breedlove said the concern was real.
“I do believe that there is a fear that if we give this technology to Ukraine, that it will somehow make its way to Russia,” Breedlove told The Telegraph.
Another potential problem is the location of production. A Patriot factory in Ukraine would likely become a major target for Russian missile strikes.
One alternative under discussion is manufacturing the interceptors in Germany or another European country. But European production would also take time and require additional licensing arrangements.
Boeing expands radar production
Boeing is meanwhile increasing production of the Ka-band radar seeker.
The company reached a seven-year framework agreement in April aimed at tripling annual production. Boeing expects to produce significantly more seekers under the agreement than it manufactured during the previous 26 years combined.
However, growing US demand is adding pressure to already limited Patriot stocks.
The Telegraph reported that the war with Iran is believed to have significantly depleted US interceptor inventories, further complicating Washington’s ability to supply Ukraine.
For Kyiv, the combination of limited missile stocks, slow production expansion, and US concerns over technology transfer leaves little time to strengthen its air defenses before another winter of Russian attacks.