Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian officials announced on August 12 the results of Ukraine’s Oleksandrivka direction counteroffensive, which took place between January and August 2026.
- The Oleksandrivka counteroffensive operations showcase Ukraine’s ability to make relatively significant tactical advances and reintroduce limited aspects of mechanized maneuver on localized segments of the frontline.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to warn that Russia is preparing for large-scale involuntary reserve call-ups after the September 2026 Russian State Duma elections.
- The Kremlin is likely seeking to deter Japan from adopting a more assertive defensive posture it perceives as unfavorable to Russian interests.
- Putin is also attempting to deter European Union (EU) seizures of Russian shadow fleet vessels.
- Russia will likely continue to rely on its use of a relatively small number of jet-powered Geran drones in its nightly strikes against Ukraine until Ukraine can develop sufficient countermeasures and the technological offense-defense race resets.
- Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, one Kh-31P anti-radar missile, an unspecified number of Kh-35 cruise missiles, and 138 drones against Ukraine overnight.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a large strike against Russian naval and grain infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, on the night of August 11 to 12.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
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