Russia has threatened Ukrainians with a new “freeze” this winter, appearing to signal that Moscow could intensify its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian population – just one day after Kyiv offered Russia a mutual ‘freeze’ on attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea.
On Friday, Russia’s defense ministry posted a photo of attack drones with the caption “Like snow on your head.”
It followed with a message directed at Ukrainians: “Winter will bring you a ‘freeze.’”
The post appeared to be a threat to step up Russia’s drone campaign as temperatures drop, potentially targeting the energy infrastructure that keeps millions of Ukrainians warm through the winter.
Just one day earlier, on Thursday, Ukraine offered Russia a mutual halt to attacks on civilian ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea. Kyiv transmitted the proposal through an unnamed third country.
The Russian defense ministry declined the proposal on Friday, saying that “the Russian Armed Forces continue to strike Ukraine’s port infrastructure and vessels at sea being used in support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
Kyiv’s truce offer came amid a Black Sea escalation
Ukraine’s proposal was made as Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and commercial shipping have severely disrupted the country’s vital export routes.
Ukraine’s grain exports fell 76% year-on-year in the first part of August, according to Reuters, as intensified attacks disrupted maritime trade.
Around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports normally move through the Black Sea, making the security of its ports and shipping lanes critical to both the Ukrainian economy and global food supplies.
On Tuesday, Ukraine launched a major coordinated strike on Novorossiysk, Russia’s key Black Sea naval and grain-export hub.
The attack forced three major grain terminals to suspend operations and hit Russian naval infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the operation involved 15 domestically produced missile, aerial-drone, and naval-drone systems.
Novorossiysk has become a principal sanctuary for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet after repeated Ukrainian attacks forced Moscow to relocate many of its vessels from occupied Crimea.
Russia’s winter threat
The Kremlin has previously used winter attacks on Ukraine’s energy system as a weapon, targeting power plants, substations, and other critical infrastructure in an effort to leave civilians without electricity, heating and water.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said Russia’s message could ultimately rebound on its own population.
“Russians already know who will be responsible for them having no electricity or heating this winter,” Kovalenko said, referring to the Russian defense ministry’s threat.
He added that Russia’s statement was effectively aimed at Russians as well as Ukrainians.
“Everything is thanks to the Russian Defense Ministry. The mirror always works. What you sow, so shall you reap,” Kovalenko said.