On Sunday Aug. 16, a significant rally in support of Mykhailo Fedorov, along with a demand for the continuation of reforms at the Ministry of Defense, is due to take place in central Kyiv. However, the focus of recent protests is already shifting beyond these boundaries, with many of the banners and placards no longer mentioning Fedorov.
At the Aug. 14 rally, broader grievances against the authorities came to the fore – corruption, non-transparent decision-making, not listening to the people, and even the cutting down of 100-year-old oak trees in one of Kyiv’s districts for the benefit of developers, which has stirred anger among local residents.
One of the main slogans of last week’s large march, which gathered more than 10,000 people, was “Listening to the people – that’s powerful,” where the word “powerful,” which President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously used extensively, was employed as a form of trolling.
However, the future of the rallies is now very much in question.
Many commentators believe that, despite the uncertainty surrounding Fedorov himself (he said that negotiations with representatives of the authorities are still ongoing), President Zelensky is unlikely to be considering the option of returning him to the position of head of the Ministry of Defense.
Why?
First, General Yevhenii Khmara has already been introduced to key players and foreign partners as acting minister of defense; and second, the president cannot risk showing to the hierarchy that he is willing to give in to the street on everything.
The situation is made even more uncertain by Fedorov himself. He has not come out to the people on Maidan – that would have meant his transition into active politics – and he has indicated a lack of desire to criticize President Zelensky until the end of the war.
In a conversation with prominent civic activist Serhiy Sternenko, Fedorov said: “I will not lead the protest, because it will be perceived as a political move. And our task is to win the war.”
According to several journalists and political strategists, this is a mistake.
Ukrainian journalist Maryna Danyliuk-Yermolayeva stated. “Yes, Yushchenko’s emergence among the wider masses as a talented economist turned him into an icon of the national democrats. Yulia Tymoshenko’s appearances among the people cemented her for a long time as the people’s darling, the princess of Ukrainian politics. The same ride on a road grader by Petro Poroshenko at the dawn of the Revolution of Dignity instantly propelled the former minister in Azarov’s government to the top of the ratings… Fedorov said in an interview with The New York Times that he would not be in opposition until the end of the war. But it is worth saying that after that there will be new heroes. And they will certainly know how to go out into the streets and meet with people.”
The future of the protests therefore look ambiguous.
The largest rally, “The Last Attempt to Reach the President,” is due to take place on Sunday Aug. 16. On Tuesday Aug. 18, during parliament’s plenary week, lawmakers will vote for the new head of the Ministry of Defense.
Will the rallies continue if it becomes clear that Fedorov will definitely not return to his former ministerial post?
And if they do continue, how long can they last?
For now, this question remains open. All the more so because the main grievance of part of society toward Zelensky is not so much about Fedorov as it is about the systemic problems that forced Zelensky to dismiss the defense minister – even knowing that this would cause dissatisfaction.