Russia is showing no signs of preparing to halt its war against Ukraine and does not plan to reach a peace agreement by the end of 2026, according to Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR).
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine published Tuesday, Aug. 18, Skibitsky said Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to continue military operations and pursue his territorial objectives, including the full capture of Donetsk region.
“By the end of this year, there will be no agreements or signing of a peace deal,” Skibitsky said, citing HUR assessments of Russia’s military and political plans.
Russia preparing for winter attacks
According to Skibitsky, Russia is expected to continue attacks against Ukraine’s defense industry, military facilities, energy infrastructure, logistics and fuel stations during the fall and winter.
Electricity and heating will be particularly vulnerable during the winter, he said, while Ukraine’s gas transportation system and gas production facilities in Poltava and Kharkiv regions could also come under attack.
Skibitsky said Russian forces have developed a drone designed to attack power transmission lines. The drone reportedly carries an explosive element in its wings capable of cutting through metal.
Water infrastructure could also be at risk, he said.
Russia has also been striking bridges in frontline regions and critical bridges in the Odesa region, according to Skibitsky.
Russia may launch new mobilization
Skibitsky said HUR does not rule out a new Russian mobilization wave after elections.
He said Russia currently lacks the manpower needed to create new military formations and transform existing brigades into divisions. According to HUR estimates cited by Skibitsky, Russia has about 670,000 troops in its combat component fighting against Ukraine, with another 65,000 personnel in operational reserve.
Russian military losses are also exceeding monthly recruitment, he said.
In June, Russian military losses were estimated at about 39,000, while around 36,000 people signed military contracts. In July, losses reached at least 40,000, compared with approximately 39,000 new contracts.
Russia’s target for 2026 is to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers, according to HUR data cited by Skibitsky.
No current signs of a northern offensive
Skibitsky said Russia could theoretically launch an offensive from northern Ukraine this year, including toward Kyiv or Chernihiv regions, but there are currently no signs that Moscow is preparing such an operation.
“There are no conditions or indicators showing that they are ready for this operation, and there are no troops for it,” he said.
The situation could change if Russia launches a new mobilization.
Skibitsky said that based on Russia’s experience with the 2022 mobilization, a new wave launched later this year could allow Moscow to assemble a significant attack force by February or early 2027.
Ukrainian attacks are affecting Russia
Skibitsky said Ukrainian long-range attacks are having a growing impact inside Russia.
He said Ukrainian deep-attack operations have become the second-biggest concern among the Russian population after living standards.
The attacks on Russian oil refineries have reduced revenues for the Russian budget and major businesses, while creating additional problems for Moscow in transporting crude oil, according to the HUR official.
Ukrainian attacks in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine have also disrupted Russian logistics and destroyed radar systems, air defenses and elements of Russia’s military command and weapons-control systems, he said.
Russia preparing for possible NATO conflict
Skibitsky also warned that Russia’s current activity toward NATO countries is focused primarily on asymmetric and hybrid threats.
He pointed to unidentified drones, information campaigns targeting NATO weapons and the growth of political and civic movements sympathetic to Moscow.
“These are hybrid measures carried out by Russia,” Skibitsky said, adding that such activity has historically preceded military conflicts.
According to HUR assessments cited in the interview, Russia is preparing for a potential war with NATO by 2030. NATO countries are also preparing for that possibility by increasing defense spending, expanding military-industrial production and conducting exercises aimed at a potential conflict with Russia.