Ukrainian intelligence data indicates that Russia is preparing plans for an additional wave of mobilization in 2026–2027, according to the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Russian authorities are reportedly planning to recruit 300,000 people this year and another 300,000 next year.
The report says the additional mobilization wave is a response by Russia’s political leadership to the loss of initiative in the war, steadily rising personnel losses on the front and a significant slowdown in contract recruitment across the regions.
“Russia’s personnel losses from January through July 2026 amounted to around 240,000 people, of whom at least 140,000 were irrecoverable. At the same time, fewer people – 232,000 – were recruited under contract into the Russian occupation contingent during this period,” the presidential office said.
How many people and whom Russia plans to mobilize
Ukraine says the Russian General Staff has already prepared a plan for the additional mobilization of 600,000 people over specified periods this year and next.
“As part of preparations for the additional mobilization wave and the recruitment of criminal elements under contract, the process of amending Russian legislation and regulations has begun. Control over military registration is being significantly tightened, mechanisms are being created to recruit people serving sentences in Russia’s prisons and penal colonies, and additional coercive measures are being developed,” Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said.
The categories of convicted people eligible for military service have been expanded to include people with outstanding or unexpunged convictions under 11 articles of Russia’s Criminal Code.
These include crimes involving the smuggling of poisonous, radioactive and explosive substances, weapons and narcotics; banditry and organizing or participating in criminal groups; organizing illegal migration; violations of safety requirements at fuel and energy facilities; and the illegal handling, theft or extortion of nuclear materials or radioactive substances, among other offenses.
The Russian leadership has also approved extending mobilization and/or contract recruitment to significant categories of women serving sentences in prisons and penal colonies.
Work is also underway to establish recruitment quotas for law enforcement agencies, including the Interior Ministry, Federal Bailiffs Service, Federal Penitentiary Service and Investigative Committee, to send employees for military service under mobilization.
How long will mobilized troops be trained?
Depending on their level of training and the anticipated “survival” period of those mobilized by Russia, training could last between 15 and 60 days.
Some mobilized personnel could also be trained at military ranges in Belarus, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
The Russian leadership is preparing a package of measures to respond to potential negative social and economic consequences of placing cities and regions under a stricter wartime regime.
Internal Russian documents reportedly justify the need for an additional mobilization wave by pointing to a significant increase in regional dissatisfaction with the war, with dissatisfaction levels reaching as high as 69%, and a corresponding decline in the number of people willing to voluntarily sign military contracts.
Where is Russia struggling most to recruit?
Recruitment problems are reportedly most pronounced in the Oryol and Vladimir regions, as well as in Dagestan.
In the Kurgan region, monthly recruitment targets have been only 57–69% fulfilled since the beginning of the year. In the Volgograd region, the number of potential contract recruits has fallen by 40% compared with 2025.
Similar declines are being recorded in many other Russian regions.
Compared with 2025, some regions have seen a 30–40% drop in the number of debtors, convicted prisoners and other criminal elements, migrants and other groups that had long served as a key pool of contract recruits for the Russian military and its war against Ukraine.
A campaign to recruit students has also failed, despite involving the overwhelming majority of Russian universities.
How the Kremlin plans to enforce mobilization
The Russian leadership also plans to increase the personal responsibility of regional authorities and expand the powers of law enforcement agencies.
Russia has already introduced a system for issuing electronic mobilization notices. Authorities are developing additional coercive measures, including bans on leaving Russia, taking out loans, buying or selling real estate, revoking driving licenses and blocking funds in bank accounts.
Businesses are also expanding their military registration and mobilization departments. As of the end of July 2026, more than 2,500 new vacancies had been posted on Russian employment platforms for positions in these mobilization units, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
The most likely scenario is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a decision on mobilization after Russia’s State Duma “elections,” scheduled for Sept. 18–20 this year.