Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate his war against Ukraine by sending up to 400,000 additional Russians to the battlefield, sources close to the Kremlin told The Economist.
The Kremlin may not need to announce a new mobilization. The mobilization decree signed by Putin in September 2022 remains in force, allowing authorities to recruit additional troops without issuing a new nationwide order, according to the report.
One source said Putin believes ending the war without capturing at least all of the Donbas could threaten his survival. “They will hang me,” he reportedly told people close to him.
The planned recruitment could be delegated to Russia’s regional authorities, which would use pressure tactics to meet quotas while trying to prevent anger from spreading beyond the local level.
The system is reportedly already being tested in Russia’s Penza region, where men have allegedly been detained on the streets and forcibly sent to fight in Ukraine.
Putin’s push for escalation comes as Russia’s military has failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough despite years of fighting.
A member of Russia’s elite told The Economist that continuing the war on “inertia” is increasingly costly, draining both economic resources and political capital.
The Kremlin could also widen its hybrid campaign against Ukraine’s Western allies. Western intelligence officials reportedly fear Russia could target European factories producing weapons and military equipment for Ukraine.
However, the sources believe Putin does not want a direct military confrontation with NATO.
Domestically, Putin could respond to mounting pressure by intensifying repression against political opponents. One source said the Russian president sees a need to project strength, even though his opponents do not pose an immediate threat to his hold on power.
The Kremlin also reportedly viewed a recent visit to Moscow by the CIA director as a sign of weakness.
Despite growing unease among Russia’s elite, Putin’s position remains secure. One insider said the biggest cost of the war may ultimately be the years Russia has lost.
Nearly five years of fighting, another elite figure said, increasingly leave the impression that “the tsar is naked.”