EU defense and foreign ministers gathering in Ireland from Tuesday will grapple with bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses amid growing worries over Russia’s campaign to destabilize Kyiv’s European backers.
Moscow has taken advantage of Ukraine running low on US-built air defense missiles to pummel the country, while Kyiv has hit back against Russian infrastructure with its own long-range strikes.
“The Russian attacks on the Ukrainians are getting harsher and harsher,” an EU official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Defense ministers -- who meet Tuesday before foreign ministers hold talks Wednesday -- are expected to speak with Ukraine’s new acting defense minister Yevgeniy Khmara.
But there appears little they can do to massively increase the supply of desperately needed air interceptors to Ukraine -- beyond pressuring European countries that still have stockpiles and urging the likes of Japan and South Korea to share more.
While the Kremlin escalates its air campaign against Ukraine, there have been growing worries that Moscow is also looking to deflect from its battlefield troubles by ramping up operations in Europe.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his country has increasingly “found itself in the crosshairs of hybrid attackers” after an explosive-laden drone was found in August at Leipzig airport, a crucial military transport hub.
Berlin hasn’t yet officially blamed Russia over the incident -- but the clear suggestion is that the finger of blame is pointing at Moscow.
Fuelling the concerns over Russia’s intentions, CIA chief John Ratcliffe paid a surprise visit to Moscow last week, with US media reporting he warned Russia against attacking any NATO country.
EU officials insist they don’t see Moscow preparing for a military attack any time soon, but they are bracing for more incidents in the grey zone beneath open conflict.
“What we see is these hybrid and then not-so-hybrid attacks continuing and our assumption is that those will go on,” the EU official said.
While Merz said that those behind the incidents in Germany will “pay for them”, Europe has struggled to counter the low-level campaign of sabotage and interference it blames on Moscow.
- Sanctions, assets, reforms -
Beyond ramping up intelligence sharing and police cooperation, the EU sees bolstering support for Ukraine and hitting Moscow with sanctions as ways to raise the costs for the Kremlin.
Brussels has floated fresh plans to add 1,600 more firms and individuals to its already long list of Russians sanctioned over the war.
Meanwhile, discussion has resurfaced on whether the bloc should tap some 200 billion euros ($235 billion) of frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine.
A proposal to use the funds failed last year after opposition from Belgium, where the bulk of the assets are held, and the EU offered a 90-billion-euro loan to Kyiv off its own back.
But there is already a sense that the money might not last the two years it was intended for, and the EU may need to find a way, sooner or later, to use the immobilized Russian funds.
“As each day passes, the cost of the war is rising as Russia’s relentless attacks continue unabated,” the top diplomats of the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden wrote in a letter last week.
New British foreign minister Ed Miliband and Ukraine’s Andriy Sybiga will join their EU counterparts for a long-scheduled meeting in Ireland, where the bloc holds its rotating presidency.
But while crises rage around the globe from Ukraine to Iran, the EU ministers will also open a debate on reforming how the bloc runs its diplomacy as it seeks impact in an increasingly hostile world.
While some advocate overhauling the EU’s diplomatic service under foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, others say now is not the time for institutional reshuffling and that the 27 nations need to focus on better coordinating their positions.